Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Morning Brew July 23 2021
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Good Morning,
Markets were fairly quiet yesterday and overnight. The ECB delivered the expected dovish comments and the new framework is likely to cause a delay in rate hikes. There was little market reaction, EURUSD could rise briefly to 1.1840 but then retreated. US Initial Jobless claims t came a little higher than expected.
US Equities could rise minutely and continue to trade friendly after the close, EURUSD is trading at 1.1765 and the USD Index at 92.85. Gold and Silver are currently trading 25.25 and 1800. EURUSD formed a so called death cross, where the 50 day Moving average crosses the 200 day from above to below. Bitcoin and Oil moved little.
Today we are expecting international PMIs as the key events, next week will be busy with earnings by the tech giants, the German IFO Monday, US Durable goods on Tuesday, the FOMC on Wednesday, Inflation numbers from Canada, Germany, and GDP numbers from the US and the EU.
The International Monetary Fund stated yesterday the U.S. Federal Reserve has been "highly effective" at managing the COVID-19 crisis and supporting recovery with its commitment to overshoot a 2% inflation target in the near term.
British consumers were their most confident in July since before the coronavirus pandemic
Intel Corp stated it was facing supply chain constraints disappointed in it`s sales outlook.
Twitter Inc on Thursday reported higher revenue growth and could rise 5% in after the close.
Local Date | Local Time | Country/Region | Indicator Name | Period | Reuters Poll |
23 Jul 2021 | 01:00 | Australia | Mfg PMI Flash | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 01:00 | Australia | Services PMI Flash | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 01:00 | Australia | Comp PMI Flash | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Retail Sales MM | Jun | 0.4% |
23 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Retail Sales Ex-Fuel MM | Jun | 0.6% |
23 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Retail Sales YY | Jun | 9.6% |
23 Jul 2021 | 09:15 | France | Markit Mfg Flash PMI | Jul | 58.4 |
23 Jul 2021 | 09:15 | France | Markit Serv Flash PMI | Jul | 58.7 |
23 Jul 2021 | 09:15 | France | Markit Comp Flash PMI | Jul | 58.5 |
23 Jul 2021 | 09:30 | Germany | Markit Mfg Flash PMI | Jul | 64.2 |
23 Jul 2021 | 09:30 | Germany | Markit Service Flash PMI | Jul | 59.1 |
23 Jul 2021 | 09:30 | Germany | Markit Comp Flash PMI | Jul | 60.8 |
23 Jul 2021 | 10:00 | Euro Zone | Markit Mfg Flash PMI | Jul | 62.5 |
23 Jul 2021 | 10:00 | Euro Zone | Markit Serv Flash PMI | Jul | 59.5 |
23 Jul 2021 | 10:00 | Euro Zone | Markit Comp Flash PMI | Jul | 60.0 |
23 Jul 2021 | 10:30 | United Kingdom | Flash Composite PMI | Jul | 61.7 |
23 Jul 2021 | 10:30 | United Kingdom | Flash Manufacturing PMI | Jul | 62.5 |
23 Jul 2021 | 10:30 | United Kingdom | Flash Services PMI | Jul | 62.0 |
23 Jul 2021 | 14:00 | Brazil | IPCA-15 Mid-Month CPI | Jul | 0.64% |
23 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | Retail Sales MM | May | -3.0% |
23 Jul 2021 | 15:45 | United States | Markit Comp Flash PMI | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 15:45 | United States | Markit Mfg PMI Flash | Jul | 62.0 |
23 Jul 2021 | 15:45 | United States | Markit Svcs PMI Flash | Jul | 64.8 |
26 Jul 2021 | 02:30 | Japan | Jibun Bank Mfg PMI Flash | Jul | |
26 Jul 2021 | 10:00 | Germany | Ifo Business Climate New | Jul | 102.5 |
26 Jul 2021 | 10:00 | Germany | Ifo Curr Conditions New | Jul | 101.5 |
26 Jul 2021 | 10:00 | Germany | Ifo Expectations New | Jul | 103.0 |
26 Jul 2021 | 16:00 | United States | New Home Sales-Units | Jun | 0.800M |
27 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Durable Goods | Jun | 2.1% |
27 Jul 2021 | 16:00 | United States | Consumer Confidence | Jul | 125.8 |
28 Jul 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | CPI QQ | Q2 | 0.7% |
28 Jul 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | CPI YY | Q2 | 3.8% |
28 Jul 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | RBA Weightd Medn CPI QQ | Q2 | 0.5% |
28 Jul 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | RBA Weightd Medn CPI YY | Q2 | 1.7% |
28 Jul 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | RBA Trimmed Mean CPI QQ | Q2 | 0.5% |
28 Jul 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YY | Q2 | 1.6% |
28 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | CPI BoC Core YY | Jun | |
28 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | CPI BoC Core MM | Jun | |
28 Jul 2021 | 20:00 | United States | Fed Funds Tgt Rate | 28 Jul | 0-0.25 |
28 Jul 2021 | 20:00 | United States | Fed Int On Excess Reserves | 28 Jul | |
29 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Nationwide house price mm | Jul | |
29 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Nationwide house price yy | Jul | |
29 Jul 2021 | 09:30 | Sweden | GDP QQ Prelim | Q2 | |
29 Jul 2021 | 09:30 | Sweden | GDP YY Prelim | Q2 | |
29 Jul 2021 | 09:55 | Germany | Unemployment Chg SA | Jul | |
29 Jul 2021 | 09:55 | Germany | Unemployment Rate SA | Jul | 5.8% |
29 Jul 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | Consumer Confid. Final | Jul | |
29 Jul 2021 | 13:00 | Brazil | IGP-M Inflation Index | Jul | |
29 Jul 2021 | 14:00 | Germany | CPI Prelim YY | Jul | 3.2% |
29 Jul 2021 | 14:00 | Germany | HICP Prelim YY | Jul | 3.0% |
29 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | United States | GDP Advance | Q2 | 8.0% |
29 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Initial Jobless Clm | 19 Jul, w/e | |
30 Jul 2021 | 01:30 | Japan | Jobs/Applicants Ratio | Jun | 1.10 |
30 Jul 2021 | 01:30 | Japan | Unemployment Rate | Jun | 3.0% |
30 Jul 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | Industrial O/P Prelim MM SA | Jun | 5.0% |
30 Jul 2021 | 07:30 | France | GDP Preliminary QQ | Q2 | 0.8% |
30 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | Germany | GDP Flash QQ SA | Q2 | 2.1% |
30 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | Germany | GDP Flash YY NSA | Q2 | 10.0% |
30 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | Denmark | Unemployment Rate | Jun | |
30 Jul 2021 | 08:45 | France | CPI (EU Norm) Prelim YY | Jul | |
30 Jul 2021 | 09:00 | Spain | Estimated GDP QQ | Q2 | 2.1% |
30 Jul 2021 | 09:00 | Switzerland | KOF Indicator | Jul | |
30 Jul 2021 | 09:00 | Switzerland | Official Reserves Assets CHF | Jun | |
30 Jul 2021 | 09:00 | Austria | GDP Growth QQ Prelim | Q2 | |
30 Jul 2021 | 10:00 | Italy | GDP Prelim QQ | Q2 | 1.3% |
30 Jul 2021 | 10:00 | Italy | GDP Prelim YY | Q2 | 15.8% |
30 Jul 2021 | 11:00 | Italy | CPI (EU Norm) Prelim MM | Jul | |
30 Jul 2021 | 11:00 | Italy | CPI (EU Norm) Prelim YY | Jul | |
30 Jul 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | HICP Flash YY | Jul | 2.0% |
30 Jul 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | HICP-X F&E Flash YY | Jul | 0.9% |
30 Jul 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | GDP Flash Prelim YY | Q2 | 13.2% |
30 Jul 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | GDP Flash Prelim QQ | Q2 | 1.5% |
30 Jul 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | Unemployment Rate | Jun | 7.9% |
30 Jul 2021 | 12:00 | Italy | CPI (EU Norm) Prelim MM | Jul | |
30 Jul 2021 | 12:00 | Italy | CPI (EU Norm) Prelim YY | Jul | |
30 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Consumption, Adjusted MM | Jun | 0.5% |
30 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | GDP MM | May | |
30 Jul 2021 | 16:00 | United States | U Mich Sentiment Final | Jul | 81.3 |
(Refinitiv)
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