Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Trader Strategy
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Morning Brew July4 2024
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: US Holiday and UK Election
Good morning,
Weak US Data inspired rate cut hopes, caused yields and the USD to decline and tech to soar.
The US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI came at 48.80 vs 52.5 expected, the EU Producer Prices fell stronger then expected by 0.1% , Initial Jobless claims were 3000 higher than expected and the ADP employment Index came 10.000 lower than expected. I am not sure if the deviation from the expectation was large enough to justify the moves - but the market is always right.
The Dow dropped slighty on a drop in healthcare and consumer goods but the more rate sensitive Nasdaq and S&P closed higher and at records, The Dow lost 0.06%, the S&P gained 0.5% to close at 5537 , the Nasdaq 0.88% to 18188.
Tesla had the third great day in a row, adding 6.5% yesterday and 25% this week. The stock is not just a hairs breadth away from turning green on the year. Nvidia also gained significantly at 4.6%.
Volumes were minute at just over 7 bio shares.
The USD Index fell to 105.30 as yields dropped (10 year) to 4.35. EURUSD rose to 1.0787, Cable to 1.2740 and even the Yen rose against the USD.
Gold and Silver had a great day, rising above initial resistances and are not at 2355 and 30.30.
Be ready for significant volatility ahead:
Today is a US holiday but there is a decent amount of European Data, Swiss unemployment came in line but German Industrial Orders fell by 1.6% against an expected increase of 0.5%.
Next up are the Swiss CPI and then the UP election ahead of the key day tomorrow with the US nonfarm Payroll
Trade safely!
Thursday
- US Holiday, UK Election, DE Industrial Orders
Friday
- DE Industrial Production, UK House Prices, Swiss FX Reserves, US Nonfarm & Unemployment, Canada Labor Market Data
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