Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Powell Speaks - Tech remains strong
Good Morning,
Yesterday was a fairly slow day with no significant data
Semiconductors were strong with Nvidia +2%, AMD +4% and Intel +6%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 reached new highs, rising 0.1% and 0.23% respectively, continuing strong US market momentum. The Dow lost 0.08%. Volumes were low at 10 bio shares traded.
FX is calm with the USD index near 105, EURUSD 1.0827, GBPSD 1.2820 and USDJPY 160.85. Gold and Silver traded with decent volatility yesterday and are currently at 2365 and 31.09.
Bitcoin found some buyers again and is now 57500 and ETH 3074 as we may be nearing the ETF approval.
Today is void of significant data but Jerome Powell starts his semi-annual testimony in congress. Will he focus on high or higher for longer or on the progress in the struggle with inflation – that is the big question that will move markets. Rate traders still price in 50 bps cuts from yesterday, unchanged from yesterday.
We published a podcast with Finanz Fabio yesterday on Diversification and other interesting topics -. Listen to it here: https://open.spotify.com/episode/7sRW6jMY3kCEfTy2U3tAAY?si=p...
Tuesday
- Data Jerome Powell gives his semi annual testimony in Congress, Michael Barr speak
Wednesday
- Data China CPI & PPI Powell continues his semi annual testimony
Thursday
- Data DE HICP UK GDP, US CPI & Initial Jobless Claims, Cook & Bostic speak
- Earnings: DNB Delta Airlines, Pepsi Cola
Friday
- Data Sweden & France CPI US PPI & University of Michigan Sentiment
- Earnings: Bank of New York Mellon, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, JP Morgan Chace
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