Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: The first half of 2024 is coming to an end - how will that go?
Good morning
On Friday, the Dow ended up 0.04% and 1.5% for the week, the S&P closed down 0.15% and for the week up 0.6%, the Nasdaq ended the day down 0.18% and flat for the week.
Nvidia fell to below 130 on Friday pulling the entire sector lower and there are many comments we may be topping out – these may or may not be correct. Calling the top of a bubble can be perilous. Volumes on US Exchanges at 17 bio vs 12 bio average due to expiry.
The US Dolar was strong, as US Business activity hit a 6 month high. The Yen remains very week at close to 160 against the USD and traders are watching for an intervention. The Euro remains under pressure due to political uncertainty and the looming trade dispute with China.
Gold and Silver were again fascinating as we had another sell-off on a Friday with now real news. We have seen this already on May 31, June 7 and then again, this weekend. As of now, Gold is trading 2322 and Silver 29.57, Bitcoin is lower at 62300.
Charu put out her FX Chartbook: US Presidential Debate is the Big Market Unknown
This week starts slow and picks up as we go, the highlight of the week is likely to be Friday where we have the month, quarter and half-year ultimo along the Feds key inflation gauge, the PCE. The big unknown is the Biden/ Trump debate on Thursday.
We are also heading into the French and UK elections with possible implications for GBP and the Euro.
The overall key topics will
Key Data:
Monday
- Data DE IFO Index, Waller & Daly, Speak
Tuesday
- Data Japan PPI, Canada CPI, US Consumer Confidence, Bowman & Cook speak.
Wednesday
- Data AU CPI, USS New Home Sales
Thursday
- Data EU Consumer Confidence, Turkey Rate decision, US Initial Jobless claims., GDP Final. Durable Goods Orders, US presidential Debate
Friday
- Data CH KOF indicator DE Unemployment rate US PCE, Barkin speaks, Ultimo
Expiries:
Physically Settled Futures
RCN4 will expire on 24 Jun 2024 at 09:00
NGN4 will expire on 25 Jun 2024 at 19:30
TTFMN4 will expire on 26 Jun 2024 at 19:30
Expiring CFDs
COPPERUSJUL24 will expire on 26 Jun 2024 at 15:00
CORNJUL24 will expire on 26 Jun 2024 at 15:00
GASOLINEUSJUL24 will expire on 26 Jun 2024 at 15:00
HEATINGOILJUL24 will expire on 26 Jun 2024 at 15:00
NATGASUSJUL24 will expire on 24 Jun 2024 at 15:00
SILVERJUL24 will expire on 26 Jun 2024 at 15:00
SOYBEANOILJUL24 will expire on 26 Jun 2024 at 15:00
SOYBEANSJUL24 will expire on 26 Jun 2024 at 15:00
SUGARNYJUL24 will expire on 26 Jun 2024 at 15:00
WHEATJUL24 will expire on 26 Jun 2024 at 15:00
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.