Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Morning Brew June 24 2021
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Good Morning
Biden announces infrastructure deal, equities rise to new highs, other assets calm – Beware of Fed Speakers
The bipartisan infrastructure deal helped pull the S&P500 and the Nasdaq to new highs, the Jones gained +0.95%, the S&P 500 0.58% and the Nasdaq +0.69%, the Vix temporarily dropped to a year low and the Dax is back above 15600 based on the Future and Asia mainly followed the US. There was little movement in FX or rates, the USD Index trades at 91.80, the 10 year Yield in the US at 1.4918 and Bitcoin at 34400. Oil rose to 73.5 with focus on the OPEC+ meeting scheduled for next week, to discuss easing of their output cuts. Gold and Silver moved little at 26.06 and 1777.
In terms of economic data we are looking at the GfK Consumer confidence out of Germany at 8 and US Data including the PCE Price Index at 14:30 CET. Several Fed Members will appear throughout the afternoon and may be the most important today with possible hints at tapering or not.
- The U.S. will discuss measures towards China next week.
- Didi, the Chinese Uber competitor is aiming atUSD 60 bln valuation in NYSE debut
- Russia is planning export taxes on metals amounting toUSD 2.3 billion between Aug. 1 and Dec. 31
- Today is a holiday in: Sweden, Finland, Latvia, Slovenia.
We are approaching a decent number of Futures and CFD expiries next week.
Please remember that we do not allow delivery situations and therefore close positions before the risk of a delivery occurs. That means that we monitor the expiry date as well as the first notice date (FND) If the expiry day is prior to the first notice day (FND) the contract will be closed on the expiry day. If the FND is the same or prior to the expiry day the contract will be closed the weekday prior to the FND.ZON1 will expire 25th June at 15:00 GMT. NGN1 will expire 28th June at 15:00 GMT.OJN1 will expire 29th June at 12:15 GMT.
HGN1, KEN1, PLN1, RRN1, SILN1, SIN1, ZCN1, ZLN1, ZMN1, ZSN1, ZWN1 will expire 29th June at 15:00 GMT.
HON1, RBN1, SBN1 will expire 30th June at 15:00
COPPERUSJUL21, CORNJUL21, GASOLINEUSJUL21, HEATINGOILJUL21, PLATINUMJUL21, SILVERJUL21, SOYBEANMEALJUL21, SOYBEANOILJUL21, SOYBEANSJUL21, SUGARNYJUL21, WHEATJUL21 will expire 28th June at 15:00 GMT.
OILUKAUG21 will expire 30th Jun at 15:00 GMT
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