Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Key days ahead
Good morning
Equities were fairly calm yesterday, the Dow hardly moved at +0.04%, the S&P gained 0.16%, and the Nasdaq 0.49%. The Dax tried to break higher yesterday but was firmly rejected at the 18366 resistance. Volumes in the US were again low at 10.6 billion shares traded against 11.8 average.
Nvidia only moved by 0.25% yesterday and Amazon rose 3.9% and exceeded a market capitalization of USD 2 trillion for the first time ever. Rivan ended the day 23% higher on the news of the cooperation with VW. Tesla gained 4.8%. US Banks pass their annual stress test despite higher losses.
Peter focused on Hermes in a note yesterday: Hermès: The pinnacle of timeless luxury and craftsmanship
The USD Index broke above 106 and10 year yields are higher at 4.33. The Euro fell to below 1.07 to trade at 1.0690 GBPUSD 1.2630 and USDJPY is above 160 – firmly in intervention territory. Gold and Silver were weak at are now at 2300 and 28.75, near key supports.
Ole wrote on Oil yesterday: Crude seeks support from seasonal demand strength | Saxo (home.saxo)
Looking ahead, there is a good deal of data and key political events are lining up.
In Europe, the EU summit is taking place and there are three important elections in the coming days:
- Iran presidential election Jun 28
- French election on the 30th and the 7th
- UK Election July 4th
The French election can have an impact on the Euro so EURUSD and EURCHF are worth A large unknown is the first debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump happening at 03:00 CET, more information here
We are also approaching half year, quarter and month end and many futures expiries, there is a good chance we will see a lot of volatility next two days!
Thursday
- Data EU Consumer Confidence, Turkey Rate decision, US Initial Jobless claims GDP Final. Durable Goods Orders, US presidential Debate
Friday
- Data CH KOF indicator DE Unemployment rate US PCE, Barkin speaks, Ultimo
Physically Settled Futures in GMT
HGN4 will expire on 27 Jun 2024 at 15:00
RRN4 will expire on 27 Jun 2024 at 15:00
SILN4 will expire on 27 Jun 2024 at 15:00
SIN4 will expire on 27 Jun 2024 at 15:00
XCN4 will expire on 27 Jun 2024 at 15:00
XKN4 will expire on 27 Jun 2024 at 15:00
XWN4 will expire on 27 Jun 2024 at 15:00
ZCN4 will expire on 27 Jun 2024 at 15:00
ZLN4 will expire on 27 Jun 2024 at 15:00
ZMN4 will expire on 27 Jun 2024 at 15:00
ZSN4 will expire on 27 Jun 2024 at 15:00
ZWN4 will expire on 27 Jun 2024 at 15:00
SBN4 will expire on 28 Jun 2024 at 15:00
HON4 will expire on 28 Jun 2024 at 15:00
RBN4 will expire on 28 Jun 2024 at 15:00
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.