Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Morning Brew March 21 2023
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Welcome to Spring - Will Markets Bloom?
Good Morning,
Risk sentiment is on the rise as the takeover of Credit Suisse is digested positively and there were no major negative news yesterday. Equities traded in wild swings yesterday with UBS trading a range of more than 3 Francs and the GER40 500 Points.
Right now, the US 500 is trading at 3957, the US 30 32273 and theUS Tech 100 12577. The GER 40 is above the 15k at 15070 at a minor resistance level – 15250 would be the next interesting area.
In FX, the USD Index is at 103.48 with the EURUSD at above 1,07 GBPUSD 1.2250 and USDJPY at 131.656. USDCHF and EURCHF are at 0.9305 and 0.9967. Gold and Silver remain strong at 1980 and 22.50 while Bitcoin is off the high but remains up 65% year to date at 27500.
Without more negative sentiment from the banking sector, the focus will be on the FOMC rate decision tomorrow. As of now, the probability is in favor of a 25 Basis point hike with 75% and no change with 25%.
Continue to expect news driven markets and choppy trading can be expected if there are any surprising comments/ news but without, risk sentiment seems to be in the drivers seat for now.
Macro data on watch this week:
Tuesday 21 March
- US Existing home sales (Feb)
- Germany ZEW sentiment survey (Mar)
- Japan Markets closed
- South Korea Exports first 20 days (Mar)
Wednesday 22 March
- US Fed FOMC decisions
- UK CPI
- UK RPI
Thursday 23 March
- US New home sales (Feb)
- Eurozone Consumer confidence (Mar)
- Switzerland Swiss National Bank policy rate decisions
- UK Bank of England policy rate decisions
- Norway Norges Bank policy rate decisions
- Japan Reuters Tankan manufacturing (Mar)
- Singapore CPI (Feb)
- Hong Kong CPI (Feb)
Friday 24 March
- US Durable goods orders (Feb)
- US S&P manufacturing PMI (Mar. preliminary)
- Eurozone PMI composite (Mar)
- Germany PMI composite (Mar)
- France PMI composite (Mar)
- UK GfK consumer confidence (Mar)
- UK UK Retail sales (Feb)
- UK PMI composite (Mar)
- Japan National CPI (Feb)
- Japan PMI manufacturing (Mar)
- Malaysia\ CPI (Feb)
- Singapore Industrial production (Feb)
Earnings on watch this week:
- Tuesday: Nike, Anta Sports, RWE, Partners Group
- Wednesday: Tencent, China Telecom
- Thursday: Accenture, General Mills, Darden Restaurants, China Mobile
- Friday: Meituan, China Merchant Bank
Expiries
Physically Settled Futures
CLJ3 will expire 21 Mar 2023 at 15:00 GMT
PLJ3 will expire 22 Mar 2023 at 15:00 GMT
Expiring CFDs
PLATINUMAPR23 will expire 21 Mar 2023 at 15:00 GMT
NATGASUSAPR23 will expire 27 Mar 2023 at 15:00 GMT
Futures can be rolled online via the Futures Spread Trade Ticket. Any open positions will be closed after the mentioned times.
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