Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Morning Brew March 25 2024
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Slow Week until Friday?
Good Morning,
We are approaching the end of the Quarter end and what a quarter is has already been:
The US 500 is up 9.7% on the year, the US Tech 100 NAS +9%, the GER 40 +8.75% the Japan 225 is up 21%. Bitcoin rose more than 50%, Gold 5% and Silver 3.8%. The Dollar Index rose 3.1% with EURUSD down 2.10%, GBPUSD -1% but USDJPY +7.4%.
The most interesting stocks were Super Micro Computer at +240%, Nvidia at +90% and Rheinmetall at +75%. Tesla is the big lagger in the S&P500 at -31% and Apple lost 10.5%.
Nvidia has for the first time ever had eleven weeks of gains – will it manage 12?
Our FX strategist sees potential for a strong USD this week against most other currencies G old sideways and Silver weak - Weekly FX Chartbook: The return of US exceptionalism
With limited top-tier economic data expected for most of the week, traders may anticipate a relatively quiet start. However, attention may shift to Friday's release of the US CPE Deflator. It is the key inflation measurement of the US federal reserve.
The PCE will be released on Good Friday holiday and has this the potential to have a dramatic impact as it is extremely important on the one hand and will hit extremely illiquid markets on the other – it always takes especially European traders by surprise that there is crucial US Data on a US holiday.
In addition to economic data, geopolitical events may also play a significant role in shaping market sentiment. The recent terror attack in Moscow and the absence of a ceasefire in Gaza may heighten global geopolitical tensions, potentially impacting risk assets and safe-haven instruments. The trade-frictions between the US and China seem to be entrenching as China announced over the weekend that Intel and AMD chips would be banned from Government PC.
As the quarter-end approaches, market participants may brace for increased volatility as portfolio rebalancing and position squaring take place. This period often sees heightened activity as fund managers and traders adjust their holdings, potentially leading to fluctuations in asset prices across equities, bonds, and currencies.
Trade carefully!
Monday
- Data US New Home Sales
- Earnings: BNP
Tuesday
- Data Japan PPI, US Durable Goods, Consumer Confidence, Bostic speaks
- Earnings: BYD
Wednesday
- Data AU CPI EU Consumer Confidence, Waller Speaks,
Expiries
Physically Settled Futures
NGJ4 will expire 25 Mar 2024 at 19:30 GMT
TTFMJ4 will expire 26 Mar 2024 at 10:00 GMT
GCJ4 will expire 26 Mar 2024 at 15:00 GMT
MGCJ4 will expire 26 Mar 2024 at 15:00 GMT
HOJ4 will expire 28 Mar 2024 at 15:00 GMT
RBJ4 will expire 28 Mar 2024 at 15:00 GMT
Expiring CFDs
GOLDAPR24 will expire 26 Mar 2024 at 15:00 GMT
HEATINGOILAPR24 will expire 26 Mar 2024 at 15:00 GMT
NATGASUSAPR24 will expire 22 Mar 2024 at 15:00 GMT
OILUKMAY24 will expire 28 Mar 2024 at 16:00 GMT
GASOLINEUSAPR24 will expire 26 Mar 2024 at 15:00 GMT
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