Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Morning Brew March 28 2023
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Is the storm past or are we in the eye of it?
Good Morning,
EURUSD is back above 1.08 at 1.0811, Cable has breached the 1.23 again and USDJPY is below 131. GER40 is testing the 15200 but needs a close abor 15300 to break the downtrend, the US500 should reclaim the 4000 for more upside.
Markets remained in a consolidation phase yesterday with the most important news being the lack of bad news. Yields gained slightly, the USD Index fell a little, stocks could post moderate gains and Gold and Silver remained stable.
The agenda is thin today with the key events being the US Consumer Confidence and the US Senate Banking Committee.
It is a little early to see which topic will emerge as market driver next – for the banking crisis, we need more time for it to fade front eh top of the mind but inflation, the US-China rift, the debt ceiling or the unknown unknown may emerge or reemerge at any point in time.
Remain cautious while we see if the storm is past or if we are in the eye of it.
Update on Technical levels:
Yields are on the bounce in both US and EU. Both 2 and 10-year Government yields have formed bottom and reversal patterns indicating strong rebounds.
DAX Broken bearish out of rising wedge like pattern formed over the past 4-6 months. Three times last week tried buyers to lift DAX above 55 daily MA only to close below. The Index is in a short-term downtrend with lower lows and lower highs. To reverse that a closed above 15,300 is needed.
FTSE 100/UK100 and FTSE 250/UK250MID are the weakest of the leading European Indices. Currently testing key supports minor bounce could be seen before sellers are likely regain control
Tuesday, 28 March
- Australia Retail Sales (Feb)
- UK Bailey Testifies on SVB
- US Senate Banking Committee to hold first hearing on SVB collapse
- US Advance Goods Trade Balance (Feb)
- US Consumer Confidence (Mar)
Wednesday, 29 March
- Australia CPI (Feb)
- Bank of Thailand rate decision
- German GfK Consumer Confidence (Apr)
- UK BOE Mann speaks
- US House FSA hearing on SVB
Thursday, 30 March
- Germany CPI (Mar P)
- US Initial Jobless Claims (25-Mar)
- US GDP (Q4 T)
- US Treasury Secretary Yellen and Fed’s Barkin speak
Friday, 31 March
- Japan Jobless Rate (Feb)
- Japan Tokyo CPI (Mar)
- China PMIs (Mar)
- UK GDP (Q4 F)
- France CPI (Mar P)
- Italy CPI (Mar P)
- Eurozone CPI (Mar P)
- US PCE (Feb)
- US Univ. of Michigan Sentiment (Mar F)
Earnings on watch this week:
- Monday: BioNTech, Carnival
- Tuesday: BYD, Nongfu Spring, Micron Technology, Lululemon Athletica, Walgreens Boots Alliance
- Wednesday: Constellation Software, Cintas, Paychex
- Thursday: Kweichow Moutai, Great Wall Motor, H&M
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