Morning Brew March 5 2024

Good Morning,

At the moment equities are not too happy with start of the National People's Congress in China. The Growth target seems quite ambitious but there seems not as much stimulus as expected. Equities are trading a little lower globally lead by China and Hong Kong.

The US 500 ist at 5118, the US Tech 100 NAS at 18147, the GER40 17635 and the Japan 225 40070. The Hongkong 50 lost 2.3% to trade at 16180.

Yesterday, Apple was hit with a USD 2 billion fine and loses 2.5%, Tesla reports the lowest shipments from the Chinese plant in more than a year and lost 7%.

One noteworthy development in US Tech s the fact that there is quite a divergence in the shares formerly known as the magnificent 7, now they are sending mixed signals as Kim points out:

Technical Update Equities - Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia & Tesla

• Alphabet C - Broken bearish after taken out support. Next support at 130.37
• Amazon – Strong uptrend with potential to 188.65 previous all-time high
• Apple – Broken bearish. No support until around 166.90
• Meta – Uptrend intact key support 453
• Microsoft – Still uptrend but stalling a bit. Key support at 397
• Nvidia – FOMO. Massive bubble but can continue higher. See my latest Technical update where an indicator is pointing to 1,037
• Tesla – Tesla failing to close gap. Resuming bear trend likely, could drop to 180 possibly lower

Yields and the USD Index moved only minutely, the 10 year yield is 4.20 and the USD Index 103.90. EURUSD 1.0850, GBPUSD 1.2676 and USDJPY 150.47.

Where it gets interesting is Gold, Silver and Bitcoin at 2115, 23.80 and 67200.  Gold and Bitcoin are near the highs, Siver is also strong but is far away from the early eighties high near 50. Key should be the Bitcoin and or Gold either breaking to new all time highs or a rejection.

In his Volatility Report, Koen says: This week's volatility report outlines key trade setups for NDX, CAC40, CRWD, and MDB, targeting respective market movements. Amidst varying market conditions, we offer strategies ranging from bullish to bearish, emphasizing the critical nature of managing in-the-money options to avoid assignment risks as expiration nears.

Today we expect international PMI before heading into the busy second half of the week with Powells testimony and the Beige Book tomorrow

Tuesday
- Data Japan CPI, International PMI, US Factory Orders M. Barr speaks
- Earnings: Thales, Lindt & Sprüngli, Bayer, Ferguson, Ross Stores, Franco-Nevada, CrowdStrike Holdings, Target

Wednesday
- Data AU GDP, Canada Rate decision, Powell testifies, Beige Book, Kashkari speaks
- Earnings: Deutsche Post, Brown-Forma JD.com, Legal & General, Merck KGaA,

Thursday
- Data China Trade Data, ECB rate decision, Initial Jobless claims  Powell testifies, Mester speaks
- Earnings: MTR Corp, Techtronic Industries, PRADA, Costco Wholesale, Broadcom, Marvell, Mongo., Samsara, Kroger, Continental.

Friday
- Data EU GDP, Nonfarm Payroll , Biden delivers the state of the Union
- Earnings: Oracle, China Unicom, ZTEmi