Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Morning Brew May 16 2023
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Key day of the week
Good Morning
Key day or the week is coming up and markets are jittery. Yesterday risk was being bought, indexes rose slightly, the USD gave up ground and rates stabilized. The Fed`s Empire Manufacturing Index came as a very negative surprise at -31.8 vs -3.75 expected but did not have too much of an impact.
Disappointing Retail Sales in China is weighing on sentiment at the moment then USD Index is at 102.50 again, EURUSD 1.0866, GBPUSD 1.2500, USDJPY 135.85 and Gold and Silver 2012 and 23.85. Bitcoin is stuck at 27k .
Indexes remain rangebound, the US 30 33.250. US 500 4124, US Tech 100 NAS 13391. The GER40 15900.
We have some data out his morning but focus will be on the US retail sales at 14:30 and any outcomes from the debt ceiling negotiations. We only have app 2 weeks to find a solution and if not, there should be fairly wild swings in all asset classes. Fed speakers will also be watched closely.
If you are looking at fixed income, I would like to raise this great article by Althea to your attention:
https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/bonds/trading-an-inverted-yield-curve-why-and-how-11052023
- Today
Data: China Retail Sales, UK Claiment Count, France GDP, EU GDP, DE ZEW, US Retail Sales, Canada CPI, US Industrial Production. Mester, Bostic, Barr speak.
Earnings:Vodafone, Copart, Home Depot, Baidu,
- Wednesday:
Data: Japan GDP, EU HICP, US Housing Starts Bostic Speaks,
Earnings:, Tencent Holdings Sea Ltd,Muenchener Rueckversicherung, Siemens, TJX Cos, Cisco Systems, Synopsys, Target, Experian - Thursday:
Data: Japan Trade, AU Employment, US Philly Fed, Existing Home Sales, Barr and Logan Speak
Earnings: National Grid, Alibaba Group, Applied Materials, Ross Stores, Walmart
- Friday:
Data: Japan CPI, CA Retail Sales
Earnings: Deere Tokio Marine Holdings ,
Expiring CFDs- OILUSJUN23 will expire 18 May at 08:00 GMT
- NOR25MAY23 will expire 19 May at 08:00 GMT
- SWE30MAY23 will expire 19 May at 08:00 GMT
- FRA40MAY23 will expire 19 May at 08:00 GMT
- NETH25MAY23 will expire 19 May at 08:00 GMT
- SPAIN35MAY23 will expire 19 May at 08:00 GMT
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