Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Morning Brew July 27 2021
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Good Morning,
In a rather quiet session US Equities closed at highs yesterday and fall minutely overnight, so a similar picture to the one we saw yesterday. Asian Equities remain under pressure and the 300 Chinese Blue Chips fell to the lowest level of the year – a rather conflicting picture.
Chinese stocks listed in the US have lost $200 billion in combined market capitalization in the past two sessions.
Tesla, as the first key companies to report this week came strong, generating 1.14 bio in profit in Q2, stocks can rise 1% after market as Elon Musk stresses the chip shortage may hurt sales.
New Chief Risk Officer for Credit Suisse will be Credit Suisse Tuesday appointed Goldman Sachs' David Wildermuth
Today key earnings come from: United Parcel Service, Advanced Micro Devices, Microsoft, Apple, Starbucks, Alphabet, Visa
Tomorrow: BASF, Banco Santander, GlaxoSmithKline, Ford, Facebook, Shopify, Pfizer, Boeing, McDonalds, Bristol.-Myers, CME
Bitcoin is looking at a volatile session. Currently trading almost 10% off the low. Amazon had refuted a report it would accept Bitcoin this year.
FX and the USD Index were fairly quiet and are looking to the FOMC tomorrow for signals, Gold and Silver trade lower at 1795 and 25.20, EURUSD trades at 1.1797 and Cable at 1.3820.
Besides Earnings, watch out for the US Durable goods orders and US Consumer confidence at 14:30 and 16:00 CET.
Local Date | Local Time | Country/Region | Indicator Name | Period | Reuters Poll |
27 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Durable Goods | Jun | 2.1% |
27 Jul 2021 | 16:00 | United States | Consumer Confidence | Jul | 125.8 |
28 Jul 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | CPI QQ | Q2 | 0.7% |
28 Jul 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | CPI YY | Q2 | 3.8% |
28 Jul 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | RBA Weightd Medn CPI QQ | Q2 | 0.5% |
28 Jul 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | RBA Weightd Medn CPI YY | Q2 | 1.7% |
28 Jul 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | RBA Trimmed Mean CPI QQ | Q2 | 0.5% |
28 Jul 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YY | Q2 | 1.6% |
28 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | CPI BoC Core YY | Jun | |
28 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | CPI BoC Core MM | Jun | |
28 Jul 2021 | 20:00 | United States | Fed Funds Tgt Rate | 28 Jul | 0-0.25 |
28 Jul 2021 | 20:00 | United States | Fed Int On Excess Reserves | 28 Jul | |
29 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Nationwide house price mm | Jul | |
29 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Nationwide house price yy | Jul | |
29 Jul 2021 | 09:30 | Sweden | GDP QQ Prelim | Q2 | |
29 Jul 2021 | 09:30 | Sweden | GDP YY Prelim | Q2 | |
29 Jul 2021 | 09:55 | Germany | Unemployment Chg SA | Jul | |
29 Jul 2021 | 09:55 | Germany | Unemployment Rate SA | Jul | 5.8% |
29 Jul 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | Consumer Confid. Final | Jul | |
29 Jul 2021 | 13:00 | Brazil | IGP-M Inflation Index | Jul | |
29 Jul 2021 | 14:00 | Germany | CPI Prelim YY | Jul | 3.2% |
29 Jul 2021 | 14:00 | Germany | HICP Prelim YY | Jul | 3.0% |
29 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | United States | GDP Advance | Q2 | 8.0% |
29 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Initial Jobless Clm | 19 Jul, w/e | |
30 Jul 2021 | 01:30 | Japan | Jobs/Applicants Ratio | Jun | 1.10 |
30 Jul 2021 | 01:30 | Japan | Unemployment Rate | Jun | 3.0% |
30 Jul 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | Industrial O/P Prelim MM SA | Jun | 5.0% |
30 Jul 2021 | 07:30 | France | GDP Preliminary QQ | Q2 | 0.8% |
30 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | Germany | GDP Flash QQ SA | Q2 | 2.1% |
30 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | Germany | GDP Flash YY NSA | Q2 | 10.0% |
30 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | Denmark | Unemployment Rate | Jun | |
30 Jul 2021 | 08:45 | France | CPI (EU Norm) Prelim YY | Jul | |
30 Jul 2021 | 09:00 | Spain | Estimated GDP QQ | Q2 | 2.1% |
30 Jul 2021 | 09:00 | Switzerland | KOF Indicator | Jul | |
30 Jul 2021 | 09:00 | Switzerland | Official Reserves Assets CHF | Jun | |
30 Jul 2021 | 09:00 | Austria | GDP Growth QQ Prelim | Q2 | |
30 Jul 2021 | 10:00 | Italy | GDP Prelim QQ | Q2 | 1.3% |
30 Jul 2021 | 10:00 | Italy | GDP Prelim YY | Q2 | 15.8% |
30 Jul 2021 | 11:00 | Italy | CPI (EU Norm) Prelim MM | Jul | |
30 Jul 2021 | 11:00 | Italy | CPI (EU Norm) Prelim YY | Jul | |
30 Jul 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | HICP Flash YY | Jul | 2.0% |
30 Jul 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | HICP-X F&E Flash YY | Jul | 0.9% |
30 Jul 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | GDP Flash Prelim YY | Q2 | 13.2% |
30 Jul 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | GDP Flash Prelim QQ | Q2 | 1.5% |
30 Jul 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | Unemployment Rate | Jun | 7.9% |
30 Jul 2021 | 12:00 | Italy | CPI (EU Norm) Prelim MM | Jul | |
30 Jul 2021 | 12:00 | Italy | CPI (EU Norm) Prelim YY | Jul | |
30 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Consumption, Adjusted MM | Jun | 0.5% |
30 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | GDP MM | May | |
30 Jul 2021 | 16:00 | United States | U Mich Sentiment Final | Jul | 81.3 |
(Refinitiv)
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