Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Morning BrewMay 7 2024
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Risk sentiment strong
Good morning,
Equities had another good day with chip stocks especially strong – Nvidia gained 3.7%, The Dow 0.5%, the Nasdaq100 1.15% and the S&P 500 1%. Reason was still the digestion of the weak jobs-data on Friday and dovish fed speakers. The Ger40 rose to now 18212 - will we test the 18500 soon?
This morning UBS reported the first quarterly profit after the merger with Credit Suisse, beating expectations.
China returned from holiday and may be the reason for commodities gaining across the board. Oil gained 0.5%, Copper 1.3%, Gold 1%, Silver 3,3% and Wheat more than 4%. This morning we are seeing some reversal, Silver is down 0.8% and Gold 0.2%.
US 10-year yields continued to ease to 4.47, the USD Index is little changed at 105.22 due tot eh weak yen. EURUSD remains at 1.0760, GBPUSD at 1.2520 but USDJPY is 154.50, the Japanese Government continues to warn of an intervention, but the market is not buying into it. The AUD weakened as the RBA sounded more dovish than thought.
Althea wrote on this weeks bond auctions and Peter on the final of the earnings season. Ole`s COT report is here
The middle East remains in focus as negotiations seem to be going nowhere and Israel is attacking Hamas in Rafah.
In terms of key data the day is failrly quiet, that does not necessarily mean the market will be too.
Tuesday
- Data Australia Retail Sales& Rate decision, DE industrial Orders, Kashkari speaks
- Earnings: UBS, Siemens Healthliners, Nintendo, BP, Duke Energy, Walt Disney, Ferrari, Unicredit
Wednesday
- Data Sweden Rate decision
- Earnings: Itochu, Toyota, BMW, AirBnB, Uber, Anheuser Bush Inbev, Shopify, Emerson ,
Thursday
- Data US Initial Jobless Claims, China Trade,
- Earnings: Enel, Softbank, Brookfield,
Friday
- Data University of Michigan
- Earnings:NTT, Honda, KDD, Tokyo Electron.
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