Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Tesla lower, Gold at key resistance ahead of the US CPI
Good Morning,
Tesla remains in the spotlight as news came out that Elon Musks` brother sold a significant amount of shares before the Twitter poll on the share sale. Tesla fell 12% and lost app. 1,5 times the value of VW in Market cap. . Implied Volatility in short term options rose to above 80%. The Cix is trading at 17.78. US indexes closed lower, the Dow and the S&P 0.3% each, the Nasdaq 0.6%. Yields and the USD Index are near yesterday’s levels, EURUSD trades at 1.1575 and GBPUSD at 1.3560. Gold could gain yesterday but so far failed to breach the important 1835 level (1825 now) . Silver was less strong and remains at 24.30.
Bitcoin hit 68500 yesterday but could not hold as high despite news that Tim Cook has an interest in Crypto currencies.
Oil gained to above 84 USD per Barrel again and is driving inflation worries.
Evergrande and the Chinese Property market remains in the spotlight as Fantasia shares plunge 50% after missing a payment, S&P downgrades Shimao and Evergrande has 148 mio USD in coupons due today.
GE will be broken into three separate companies, in a well-received restructuring, shares rise 2.6%
Ahead of the US CPI at 14:30 the Chinese PPI came 2.8% higher than expected and at a 26 year high. The US Core CPI is expected at 4.8% and the broader measure at 5.8%. A higher than expected/feared number would call for hawkish tones by the FED and strengthen the USD.
Todays Earnings: Credit Agricole SA, adidas AG, affirm Holdings, Walt Disney Infineon, Allianz, NTT, Tencent and EDF
Thursday: Siemens, Merck, Brookfield Coupang
Friday: Pingduoduo, Deuschte Telekom, Cie Financiere Richemont, Tokyo Electron, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial
Astrea Zendca Hapag Lloyd