Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Morning BrewNovember 27 2023
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: USD Weak in to Month End...
Good Morning
Thanksgiving week was fairly quiet for stocks overall, the S%P 500 gained 1%, the Nasdaq Composite 0.1%, the Dow 1.3%.
EURUSD ended the week basically unchanged, GBPUSD gained 0.8%, USDJPY 0.7%.
Gold and Silver rose by 1.15% and 2.5% Bitcoin 3.4% and Ethereum 7.5%. Gold once again closed the week above the 2000 mark and traders are eager to see if we tackle the next technical levels at 2015 and 2050 or if the Rally fizzles out again.
This morning, the picture is mixed, Stocks give up some ground while the USD slips. EURUSD is 1.0957, GBPUSD 1.2620, USDJPY 148.90 and Gold and Silver are strong at 2010 and Silver 24.60.
The USD Index is trading near support – if broken there is a god amount of room to the downside . 100.90 is the key level if we break below 103.
Copper found buyers and could be interesting
Whie not very strong last week or today, Equities may be setting up for a year end Rally, as now more than half of the S&P 500 stocks are above the 200d moving average. This might be a signal for a rally outside the magnificent 7.
In Switzerland, the he big loser of the issues around Signa Group is Bank Julius Baer which lost 16% last week due to the high exposure. According to “Der Spiegel” Signa is considering filing for bankruptcy- trade carefully here and don`t catch a falling knife. Consider options if you are looking to speculate. .
This week, we are awaiting the Month end adjustments, the Opec Meeting, lots of Data with the PCE on Thursday key. Despite being the first Friday of the Month, the Nonfarm Payroll will not be released this Friday, many futures and cfd expire.
Trade safely.
Upcoming Data:
Monday
- Data Japan PPI, France Unemployment, Israel Rate Decision, US New Home Sales,
- Earnings
Tuesday
- Data: AU Retail Sales, US Consumer Confidence,
- Earnings Vantage Towers, Bank of Nova Scotia, Intuit, Workday, HP, NetApp,
Wednesday
- Data EU Consumer Confidence, Germany CPI, US GDP 2nd Estimate
- Earnings Snowflake, Okta, Pure Storage, Dollar Tree,
Thursday
- Data China PMI, Norway GDP, Swiss KOF , France CPI, Germany Unemployment, EU Inflation, US PCE & Initial Jobless Claims, Canada GDP
- Earnings Royal Bank of Canada, Dell, Marvell
Friday
- Data Japan Unemployment Rate, China Caixin PMI, International PMI, Canada Unemployment rate
- Earnings National Bank of Canada, Bank of Montreal,
Expiries
Physically Settled Futures
NGZ3 will expire 27 Nov 2023 at 08:30 GMT
MGCZ3 will expire 28 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
FLGZ3 will expire 28 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
GCZ3 will expire 29 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
HGZ3 will expire 29 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
KEZ3 will expire 29 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
SILZ3 will expire 29 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
SIZ3 will expire 29 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
TNZ3 will expire 29 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
TTFMZ3 will expire 28 Nov 2023 at 10:00 GMT
UBZ3 will expire 29 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
XCZ3 will expire 29 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
XWZ3 will expire 29 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
Z3NZ3 will expire 29 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
ZBZ3 will expire 29 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
ZCZ3 will expire 29 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
ZFZ3 will expire 29 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
ZLZ3 will expire 29 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
ZMZ3 will expire 29 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
ZNZ3 will expire 29 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
ZTZ3 will expire 29 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
ZWZ3 will expire 29 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
HOZ3 will expire 30 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
RBZ3 will expire 30 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
Expiring CFDs
10YUSTNOTEDEC23 will expire 28 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
30YUSTBONDDEC23 will expire 28 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
COPPERUSDEC23 will expire 28 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
CORNDEC23 will expire 28 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
GASOLINEUSDEC23 will expire 28 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
GOLDDEC23 will expire 28 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
HEATINGOILDEC23 will expire 28 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
SILVERDEC23 will expire 28 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
SOYBEANMEALDEC23 will expire 28 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
WHEATDEC23 will expire 28 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
CHINA50NOV23 will expire 29 Nov 2023 at 02:00 GMT
HK50NOV23 will expire 29 Nov 2023 at 02:00 GMT
TAIWAN95NOV23 will expire 29 Nov 2023 at 02:00 GMT
LIVECATTLEDEC23 will expire 30 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
OILUKJAN24 will expire 30 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
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