Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Trump 2.0 is here
Good morning,
All eyes are on the US election where a Trump victory is getting more likely – markets are reacting accordingly. After he won Georgia and North Carolina, the chances of for Harris seem slim, the Republicans won the US senate already so there is no chance of a democtratic sweep from here.
Crypto is soaring with Bitcoin up 8% and Ethereum up 7.7, European Indexes are lower for fear of trade barriers, US Indexes and the Nikkei are higher and the USD gains against most currencies, the USD Index is testing 105 up 1.5%, EURUSD us 1.0750, USDCHF is 0.8720, Gold and Silver are losing ground at -1% and -3%. US 10 Year Yields rise to 4.42 as the fed`s path becomes less clear.
Traders are betting ready for an America first policy with tariffs on imports.
Here Is our initial comment:
Tomorrow we are hosting a webinar with Blu Putnam:
The post-election market outlook
Global markets will be shaped by the trajectory of the US economy and fiscal and monetary policy in 2025. Is your portfolio ready for the new US president set to take office in January? This webinar features special guest Blu Putnam, former chief economist with CME Group.
In other news, Novo Nordisk reported earnings this morning and could report profit in line with expectations and lowered its full-year sales and profit guidance.
Continue to expect sharp moves through the days on any changes to sentiment and commentary either way and keep your risk under control.
Wednesday
- Data US Election Result
- Earnings: Novo Nordisk, Teva, Toyota, ARM, AMC, Qualcom,
Thursday
- Data DE Industrial Production, Sweden, Norway, UK and US Rate Decisions
- Earnings: Moderna, Barrick Gold, Halliburton, Rivian, thetradedesk, Pinterest, Airbnb
Friday
- Data Canada Labor Data