Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Morning Brew October 23 2024
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: McDonalds hit by E.Coli, Tesla and Bank of Canada the key events while precious metals seem unstoppable
Good morning.
US Yields continue to rise yesterday, weighing on equities a little, boosting the USD but have little impact on precious metals.
The IMF lowered its global growth forecast for next year to 3.2% and warned of accelerating risks from wars to protectionism. It left its 2024 projection unchanged and expects inflation to slow to 4.3% in 2025 from 5.8% this year. US growth forecast for 2024 and 2025 were raised while China’s growth forecast for 2024 was downgraded. Germany and Switzerland were also cut.
According to Reuters, the ECB has begun to debate whether interest rates need to be lowered enough to start stimulating the economy
US Indexes changed little despite high volumes, Verizon fell more than 5% on weak earnings, 3m lost 2.3%, Texas Instruments rose in the aftermarket on good results.
McDonalds is suffering an outbreak of E.coli in a number of it`s restaurants While we are still at the beginning of the crisis, a similar case in 2015 cost Chipotle 45% of it`s value.
Deutsche Bank's net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.461 billion euros ($1.58 billion) in the quarter, figures showed on Wednesday. That compares with a profit of 1.031 billion euros a year earlier
US 10 Years are trading at 4.24, the USD Index is 104.14, EURUSD fell below the 1.08 and GBPUSD dropped below 1.30, USDJPY is above 152.
Gold is at 2750 and Silver 34.75. Oil is trading higher on the chances of a Middle East ceasefire being seen skeptically, the US Line is being traded at 71.63, Bitcoin is a little lower at 66990
Today`s highlights are likely to be the Bank of Canada, expected to cut rates by 50bps to 3.75%. and Tesla earnings after hours.
Please remember that it is now possible to trade in the aftermarket if you wish to to so. If you enable the extended trading hours in the trading settings, you can place limit orders that are active from 13:00 CET to 23:00 CET.
Key Articles:
Ole: Gold and silver’s remarkable run in four charts
Althea: What the "Trump Trade" Means for Your Bond Portfolio – And How to Protect It
Koen: Smart Investor: Enhance portfolio income with covered calls on blue chips
Wednesday
- Data Japan Chain Store Sales, Bank of Canada Rate Decision, EU Consumer Confidence,
- Earnings: Boeing, AT&T, Coca Cola, Thermofischer, CME, Tesla, IBM, TMobile,
Thursday
- Data International PMI US Initial Jobless Claims ,
- Earnings American Airlines , UPS, Nasdaq,
Friday
- Data Japan CPI, DE IFO, US Durable Goods Ordres
- Earnings, Colgate Palmolive
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