Morning Brew November 27 2024

Good morning,

Tomorrow and Friday I will be off - trade safely. 

US Indexes closed higher yesterday with a rather large underlying volatility. The Dow gained 0.3%, Nasdaq and S&P 0.6%, the S&P briefly traded at a new all time high.

Big Tech traded friendly while US Automakers traded under pressure on the news on the tariffs on Mexican exports to the US. The supply chains are extremely integrated across the border and any measures affect US Companies as well. Dell lost almost 10% after earnings after hours. Palantir switched it`s listing to the Nasdaq yesterday, likely to joint eh NASDAQ100 in the near future.

The GER40 gained yesterday and is stable overnight, we are trading at 19300.

10-year yields and the USD Index remain calm at 4.28 and 106.80, the PCE today at 16:00 will be rather significant. As of now, there is a 0.63% chance that the Fed will decide a  25 basis point cut in December 224, there is are 75 basis points priced in by December 25.

Gold and Silver are stronger today, despite the ceasefire in Lebanon, Gold is at 2650 and Silver 30.65, Bitcoin stabilized at 93200.

German Economic Minister Habeck displayed an astonishing degree of ignorance by stating twice in the same speech that inflation was decreasing, and prices are falling. There is a decent amount of backlash on the lack of financial literacy,

Worries on the impact of trumps policies seem to be rising, Reuters reports an increasing demand for downside protection in US Equities stating the VIX three-month call skew - a barometer of the strength of demand for these contracts - is hovering near the highest level in over five years.

After the Fed minutes yesterday basically showed a large degree of uncertainty, the data today will be one of the tangible inputs before Team trump will take the reins,  one batch of data s being released at 14:30 with US Durable Goods expected at 0.5%, the GDP at 2.8% and Initial Jobless claims at 216k at 16:00 the PCE at expected at 2.3% and the core at 2.8%.

Wednesday

- Data Australia CPI & Rate Decision, US Durable Goods, GDP,  Initial Jobless claims, PCE 16:00 CET

Thursday
- Data EU Consumer Confidence, DE CPI, Thanksgiving

Friday
- Data Japan Unemployment Rate, France GDP & CPI. Swiss KOF, EU HICP, Canada GDP, Black Friday

Expiries In GMT

FLGZ4 will expire on 28/Nov at 1600 hrs
TTFMZ4 will expire on 28/Nov at 1000 hrs
GCZ4 will expire on 29/Nov at 1600 hrs
MGCZ4 will expire on 29/Nov at 1600 hrs
HGZ4 will expire on 29/Nov at 1600 hrs
KEZ4 will expire on 29/Nov at 1600 hrs
SILZ4 will expire on 29/Nov at 1600 hrs
SIZ4 will expire on 29/Nov at 1600 hrs
TNZ4 will expire on 29/Nov at 1600 hrs
UBZ4 will expire on 29/Nov at 1600 hrs
ZTZ4 will expire on 29/Nov at 1600 hrs
ZWZ4 will expire on 29/Nov at 1600 hrs