Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Columbus day - Looking for Inspiration
Good Morning,
Stronger than expected ISM manufacturing data sent yields higher on Friday, equalized gains in Indexes from the lower than expected Non-Farm Payroll. The Dow closed 0.3% higher, the Nasdaq lost 0.02% and the S&P 500 gained 0.18%.
Stock to watch on Friday was Tesla which announced lowering prices and dropped 5%. Novo Nordisk is launching Wegovy in the UK today.
The USD Index rose to 104.15 and the 10 year yields tested 4.2 and are now 4.18. EURUSD dropped to 1.0798, 1.2615 and USDJPY rose to 146.15. Gold is trading at 1945 and Silver 24.20. Oil reached a new years high on Friday,.
China announced a special bureau to promote growth in the private sector, boosting sentiment and Country Garden announced an agreement with creditors boosting sentiment in the Asian session.
Today, due to Columbus day, the US Stock exchanges are closed and we expect little data so traders will try to digest changes to the macro setup.
The next real clues may only come Wednesday AND Thursday when several Fed Speakers appear.
Monday
- Data Turkey CPI
Tuesday
- Data: Caixin PMI, RBA Cash Rate, International PMI, US Factory Orders
Wednesday
Feds Collins and Logan speak
- Data AU GDP, DE Industrial Orders, US Trade,
Thusday
Harker Goolsbee, Williams, Bostic and Bowman speak
- Data China Trade, DE Industrial Production, CH FX Reserves, US Initial Jobless claims
Friday
- Data Japan GDP, DE HICP,