Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Trader Strategy
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CNY driven sharply lower as trade war heats up
Michael McKenna
Head of Editorial Content, Saxo Bank
The People's Bank of China cut the amount of cash that some banks must hold as reserves by 50 basis points, releasing $108 billion in liquidity as the trade war threats from Washington continue to intensify.
Saxo bank Head of FX Strategy John Hardy notes that while the PBoC's stated objective was to aid small-to-medium-sized enterprises, the sharp decline in CNY may well be a response to the threat of trade war.
Elsewhere in FX, Hardy notes that TRY has gained on Erdogan's election win while the Japanese yen is in focus – particularly versus a euro weighed down by migration-driven uncertainty on German chancellor Merkel's political future – as risk-aversion spreads.
Saxo Head of Equity Strategy Peter Garnry cautions investors to remain defensive equities overall and underweight emerging markets, noting that the major indices could see a drop to long-term support as the trade war plays out.
One other factor to watch is the 10-year Treasury yield, which Saxo bonds specialist Althea Spinozzi says might have hit a cycle peak, adding that only a resolution to the trade crisis looks likely to boost it further.
Finally, Garnry reports that European carmakers are in focus on trade war fears with Fed chair Jerome Powell out noting that the current spate of tit-for-tat threats have not yet entered the major macro data releases.
For more on equities, forex, and bonds, watch today's Morning Call in full.
Quarterly Outlook
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Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
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Quarterly Outlook
China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation
Charu Chanana
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Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
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Quarterly Outlook
FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Trader Strategy
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Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
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Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
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Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
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Quarterly Outlook
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Charu Chanana
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