Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Complacency rules, despite Trump's tariff debut
Clare MacCarthy
Senior Editor, Saxo Bank
Please note: Saxo's Morning Call is taking a summer break. We'll be back on July 30th.
The US dollar is down, EM and smaller G-10 currencies have rebounded and risk appetite is healthily ahead, despite the fact that Trump's tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chinese goods come into force today and China has announced additional retaliatory levies on the US.
"There was very little reaction to the FOMC minutes overnight, the market seems distracted by the trade wars. Trump has been out campaigning for various republican mid-term candidates so the rhetoric is not backing down but the market is in very complacent mood," says John J Hardy, Saxo's Head of Forex Strategy.
Some element of this complacency may be ascribed to the market's perception that fear of the tariffs might dissuade the Fed from hiking interest rates as much as was feared, Hardy adds. "Regardless, we have strong risk appetite, and the dollar is weakening as the correlation seems to be negative to risk for the dollar. We also have yen weakness."
The big ticket item on today's economic calendar is the monthly US employment report. "We're reaching levels coming into today's jobs report that are very interesting in a number of dollar pairs, including Aussie-dollar, euro-dollar and kiwi-dollar. This report looks important for setting up whether we're going to see the dollar spill over and extend its weakness for quite some time here or whether it's going to make a stand, Hardy concludes.
Quarterly Outlook
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Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
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Quarterly Outlook
FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo... -
Quarterly Outlook
Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro: Sandcastle economics
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p... -
Quarterly Outlook
Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...