Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee outing saw the US central bank make several notable changes to its language whose overall bias was to the hawkish side. Growth, for instance, was cited as 'solid' rather than 'moderate' and the overall sense from the Fed was that the US economic recovery is on track.
While the meeting's impact on equities, forex, and commodities was limited, Saxo Bank head of Equity Strategy Peter Garnry says that things could prove very different for emerging markets if the Fed holds to its hawkish policy outlook, including two more rate hikes this year.
"The trajectory here is painful for emerging markets," says Garnry, who also cautions that equities could take a post-Fed hit from President Trump's planned tariff announcement into this weekend.
Up today is the European Central Bank, and the big question here is whether it will offer guidance on its QE tapering plans or whether it will wait until its July meeting to make the announcement with six more weeks of data under its belt.
"The expectation here is that QE will last until year-end," says Garnry.
Saxo Bank Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen reports that silver is one asset to watch into the ECB session as it is challenging resistance above $17/oz. Gold, meanwhile, remains "glued to $1,300/oz" with inflation expectations and trade fears providing support.
"$1,308/oz remains the upside level to watch in gold," says Hansen.
Quarterly Outlook
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Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
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The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
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Quarterly Outlook
FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo... -
Quarterly Outlook
Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro: Sandcastle economics
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p... -
Quarterly Outlook
Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...