Saxo Group
Summary: A little over a year after the start of the war in Ukraine, the Ukrainian Ambassador to Denmark, Mykhailo Vydoinyk, visited Saxo to discuss key themes and insights with John Hardy, Head of FX Strategy. Introduced by CEO and Founder, Kim Fournais, this session provides insights into the war in Ukraine, one year on. You can watch the video here.
In Denmark, you can support Ukraine by purchasing tickets to the Ukrainian Gala at the Royal Danish Theatre in Copenhagen, 23 and 24 May 2023. Proceeds go to First Lady Olena Zelenska’s humanitarian fund to support the rebuilding of Ukraine. Buy tickets here (in Danish only).
If you are based outside of Denmark and wish to make a donation directly to the Olena Zelenska Foundation, established to help Ukrainian women and children in the rebuilding of Ukraine, click here.
Alternatively, if you wish to donate directly to the Central Bank of Ukraine, you may do so here.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.