Is the Minsky moment upon us?

Protect your investments against market turmoil

Thought Starters 5 minutes to read
Saxo Be Invested

Saxo Group

Summary:  Returns and risk are always interlinked when trading stocks. While no one truly knows if we are at a market top, there are things you can do to limit downside risk if you do have concerns. One strategy is to use options as a form of an insurance policy. Below we explain what an option is and how you can use a put option to protect your portfolio value from a potential market drop.


What is an option?

An option is a financial instrument based on the value of an underlying security such as a stock. When buying an options contract you’re paying for having the option to buy or sell the underlying security within a specific timeframe. I.e. you’re paying for the option to buy or sell an asset within a given period of time, at a specified strike price, but are not obliged to.

There are a few key components of an option contract that you need to understand:
Strike Price: The price at which the underlying instrument will be bought/sold if an option is exercised. 
Expiration Date: The last date on which the holder of the option may exercise it.
Multiplier: The number of assets an option contract can be converted into.

Let’s now look into the different types of options, calls and puts.

Call options: when buying a call option, you’re paying a premium for having the opportunity to buy a specific asset at an agreed-upon price within a given period of time. Generally speaking, if the underlying asset rises in price, so will the value of the underlying call option. If the underlying asset is above the strike price at expiration date then the holder of the option may choose to exercise the option to buy the shares at the lower agreed-upon strike price or sell the option at a profit. If the underlying price is lower, then the option would expire worthless at expiration date. Below we will show an example of how this works with a strike price of USD 40 and a premium of USD 200.

long_call
Source:theoptionsguide.com

Put options: when buying a put option, you’re paying a premium for having the opportunity to sell a specific asset at an agreed-upon price within a given period of time. Generally speaking, if the underlying asset lowers in price, the value of the put option will actually rise in price. If the underlying asset is below the strike price at expiration date then the holder of the option may choose to exercise the option to sell at the higher agreed-upon strike price, or just sell the option at a profit. If the underlying price is higher, then the option would expire worthless at expiration date. Below we will show an example of how this works with a strike price of USD 40 and a premium of USD 200.

long_put
Source:theoptionsguide.com

How to use Options as an Insurance Policy Against a Market Downturn

With major stock indices near their all-time highs, company valuations far north of historical averages, and interest rates set to rise, concerns of a stock market bubble are intensifying. 

That being said, predicting a market top is an almost impossible task, but if someone wanted to protect against a potential downward move in the market, without actually selling their current holdings, there is a way to use options as a form of an insurance policy. To do this, one could consider buying a put option as a hedge since it would increase in value if the underlying asset decreases in price. Also, given that options have embedded leverage in them, you will gain a much higher return on the put option in a downward moving market.

Again, using a put option as a hedge is very similar to buying an insurance policy on your home. When you buy a home insurance policy that doesn’t mean that you are hoping for your house to burn down, you would hope that you never have to use the benefits of that policy, but it helps you sleep a little better at night knowing you have that protection. Buying a put option will give you similar protection on a long equity portfolio, giving you some protection if the market burns down, but ideally that doesn’t happen and your long portfolio continues increasing in value. 

Using a more tangible example, picture that you own 100 shares trading at USD 200 and you predict the price to fall to USD 190 sometime over the next 30 days. To hedge your position you decide to buy a USD 200 put option for USD 6.5 with a multiplier of 100, equaling a total price of USD 650. Given various stock price scenarios in the coming 30 days, your P/L will develop accordingly as illustrated below. Note that you can’t lose more than what you paid for the option, which in this case is 3.25% of the portfolio value (6.5/200).

stockprice_30days
Source: Saxo Group

If you want to hedge a broader portfolio exposure, you may consider buying an option with an index as underlying. Assuming a portfolio with a diverse US market exposure, you decide to create a hedge by buying a put option (135 days expiry) on S&P 500 with a strike price of USD 3,640, which’s 95% of S&P 500’s current price. The premium of such protection is 3.9%, meaning you have bought the option to, within 135 days, sell 95% of S&P 500’s current value for the price of 3.9% of your portfolio value.

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto...
  • Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c...
  • FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...

Content disclaimer

None of the information provided on this website constitutes an offer, solicitation, or endorsement to buy or sell any financial instrument, nor is it financial, investment, or trading advice. Saxo Bank A/S and its entities within the Saxo Bank Group provide execution-only services, with all trades and investments based on self-directed decisions. Analysis, research, and educational content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice nor a recommendation.

Saxo’s content may reflect the personal views of the author, which are subject to change without notice. Mentions of specific financial products are for illustrative purposes only and may serve to clarify financial literacy topics. Content classified as investment research is marketing material and does not meet legal requirements for independent research.

Before making any investment decisions, you should assess your own financial situation, needs, and objectives, and consider seeking independent professional advice. Saxo does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information provided and assumes no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages resulting from the use of this information.

Please refer to our full disclaimer and notification on non-independent investment research for more details.
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

All trading and investing comes with risk, including but not limited to the potential to lose your entire invested amount.

Information on our international website (as selected from the globe drop-down) can be accessed worldwide and relates to Saxo Bank A/S as the parent company of the Saxo Bank Group. Any mention of the Saxo Bank Group refers to the overall organisation, including subsidiaries and branches under Saxo Bank A/S. Client agreements are made with the relevant Saxo entity based on your country of residence and are governed by the applicable laws of that entity's jurisdiction.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.