Is the Minsky moment upon us?

Protect your investments against market turmoil

Thought Starters 5 minutes to read
Saxo Be Invested

Saxo Group

Summary:  Returns and risk are always interlinked when trading stocks. While no one truly knows if we are at a market top, there are things you can do to limit downside risk if you do have concerns. One strategy is to use options as a form of an insurance policy. Below we explain what an option is and how you can use a put option to protect your portfolio value from a potential market drop.


What is an option?

An option is a financial instrument based on the value of an underlying security such as a stock. When buying an options contract you’re paying for having the option to buy or sell the underlying security within a specific timeframe. I.e. you’re paying for the option to buy or sell an asset within a given period of time, at a specified strike price, but are not obliged to.

There are a few key components of an option contract that you need to understand:
Strike Price: The price at which the underlying instrument will be bought/sold if an option is exercised. 
Expiration Date: The last date on which the holder of the option may exercise it.
Multiplier: The number of assets an option contract can be converted into.

Let’s now look into the different types of options, calls and puts.

Call options: when buying a call option, you’re paying a premium for having the opportunity to buy a specific asset at an agreed-upon price within a given period of time. Generally speaking, if the underlying asset rises in price, so will the value of the underlying call option. If the underlying asset is above the strike price at expiration date then the holder of the option may choose to exercise the option to buy the shares at the lower agreed-upon strike price or sell the option at a profit. If the underlying price is lower, then the option would expire worthless at expiration date. Below we will show an example of how this works with a strike price of USD 40 and a premium of USD 200.

long_call
Source:theoptionsguide.com

Put options: when buying a put option, you’re paying a premium for having the opportunity to sell a specific asset at an agreed-upon price within a given period of time. Generally speaking, if the underlying asset lowers in price, the value of the put option will actually rise in price. If the underlying asset is below the strike price at expiration date then the holder of the option may choose to exercise the option to sell at the higher agreed-upon strike price, or just sell the option at a profit. If the underlying price is higher, then the option would expire worthless at expiration date. Below we will show an example of how this works with a strike price of USD 40 and a premium of USD 200.

long_put
Source:theoptionsguide.com

How to use Options as an Insurance Policy Against a Market Downturn

With major stock indices near their all-time highs, company valuations far north of historical averages, and interest rates set to rise, concerns of a stock market bubble are intensifying. 

That being said, predicting a market top is an almost impossible task, but if someone wanted to protect against a potential downward move in the market, without actually selling their current holdings, there is a way to use options as a form of an insurance policy. To do this, one could consider buying a put option as a hedge since it would increase in value if the underlying asset decreases in price. Also, given that options have embedded leverage in them, you will gain a much higher return on the put option in a downward moving market.

Again, using a put option as a hedge is very similar to buying an insurance policy on your home. When you buy a home insurance policy that doesn’t mean that you are hoping for your house to burn down, you would hope that you never have to use the benefits of that policy, but it helps you sleep a little better at night knowing you have that protection. Buying a put option will give you similar protection on a long equity portfolio, giving you some protection if the market burns down, but ideally that doesn’t happen and your long portfolio continues increasing in value. 

Using a more tangible example, picture that you own 100 shares trading at USD 200 and you predict the price to fall to USD 190 sometime over the next 30 days. To hedge your position you decide to buy a USD 200 put option for USD 6.5 with a multiplier of 100, equaling a total price of USD 650. Given various stock price scenarios in the coming 30 days, your P/L will develop accordingly as illustrated below. Note that you can’t lose more than what you paid for the option, which in this case is 3.25% of the portfolio value (6.5/200).

stockprice_30days
Source: Saxo Group

If you want to hedge a broader portfolio exposure, you may consider buying an option with an index as underlying. Assuming a portfolio with a diverse US market exposure, you decide to create a hedge by buying a put option (135 days expiry) on S&P 500 with a strike price of USD 3,640, which’s 95% of S&P 500’s current price. The premium of such protection is 3.9%, meaning you have bought the option to, within 135 days, sell 95% of S&P 500’s current value for the price of 3.9% of your portfolio value.

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c...
  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto...
  • FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...
  • Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo...
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami...
  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p...
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Quarterly Outlook

    Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ...
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.