Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - DAX, AEX25 and CAC40 new all-time highs likely. BEL20 correction, uptrend intact
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: DAX/GER40, AEX25/NETH25 and CAC40/FRA40 have finally broken resistance confirming uptrends. New all-time highs are likely
BEL20/BELG20 in minor correction but uptrend remains strong
DAX/GER40 cfd has reached 1.382 Fibo Projection of the latest correction spiking just above 14,500. A minor correction could be seen but the trend is up with no divergence on Indicators.
Next possible bullish move could take DAX to the 1.618 projection at 16,785
To reverse the bullish trend a close below 16,000 is needed.
AEX 25/NETH25 cfd has (similar to DAX) reached 1.382 Fibo Projection of the latest correction to just under 800.
A minor correction could be seen but the trend is up with no divergence on Indicators. Resistance at around 802, which is also the 1.618 projection is likely to be taking out with a potential target for AEX is all-time highs at around 830
To reverse the bullish trend a close below 768
BEL 20/BELG20 cfd uptrend is intact.
A close below today’s (Monday 31st July) low at 3,747 will jeopardize the uptrend. A close below 3,696 is likely to demolish it totally
However, BEL 20 has short-term potential to test resistance at around 3,863. A close above could further accelerate the uptrend to 3,943-3,962 strong resistance area
CAC 40 has for the past couple of trading days building an uptrend (higher highs and higher lows) but failed to have it confirmed with RSI above 60. At the time of writing that seems to be changing.
If RSI is closing above 60 threshold the uptrend is further confirmed and is likely to continue to 7,600. Quite likely to take out all-time highs.
A spike up to the 1.618 projection at 7,620 could be seen in the next couple of weeks.
To reverse the uptrend a close below 7,464 is needed. If CAC 40slides back below 7,400 and RSI fails to close above 60 the uptrend is in jeopardy.
FRA40 cfd uptrend could take FRA40 to test the all-time high at around 7,598. If sliding back to close below 7,400 the uptrend could be cancelled
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