Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: DAX/GER40, AEX25/NETH25 and CAC40/FRA40 have finally broken resistance confirming uptrends. New all-time highs are likely
BEL20/BELG20 in minor correction but uptrend remains strong
DAX/GER40 cfd has reached 1.382 Fibo Projection of the latest correction spiking just above 14,500. A minor correction could be seen but the trend is up with no divergence on Indicators.
Next possible bullish move could take DAX to the 1.618 projection at 16,785
To reverse the bullish trend a close below 16,000 is needed.
AEX 25/NETH25 cfd has (similar to DAX) reached 1.382 Fibo Projection of the latest correction to just under 800.
A minor correction could be seen but the trend is up with no divergence on Indicators. Resistance at around 802, which is also the 1.618 projection is likely to be taking out with a potential target for AEX is all-time highs at around 830
To reverse the bullish trend a close below 768
BEL 20/BELG20 cfd uptrend is intact.
A close below today’s (Monday 31st July) low at 3,747 will jeopardize the uptrend. A close below 3,696 is likely to demolish it totally
However, BEL 20 has short-term potential to test resistance at around 3,863. A close above could further accelerate the uptrend to 3,943-3,962 strong resistance area
CAC 40 has for the past couple of trading days building an uptrend (higher highs and higher lows) but failed to have it confirmed with RSI above 60. At the time of writing that seems to be changing.
If RSI is closing above 60 threshold the uptrend is further confirmed and is likely to continue to 7,600. Quite likely to take out all-time highs.
A spike up to the 1.618 projection at 7,620 could be seen in the next couple of weeks.
To reverse the uptrend a close below 7,464 is needed. If CAC 40slides back below 7,400 and RSI fails to close above 60 the uptrend is in jeopardy.
Disclaimer
The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)