Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
You can access both of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
Technical Update - US Stock Indices set for a rebound: S&P500, Nasdaq & Dow Jones
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: Major US Indices forming bottom and reversal patterns indicating a strong rebound.
In this analysis: S&P 500/US500, Nasdaq 100/USNAS100 & Dow Jones Industrial/US30
S&P 500 opened below yesterday the 200 daily Moving Average dipping down to touch the 0.618 retracement at 3,929 to close above key support at 3,949 forming a Bullish Engulfing candle which is a strong indication of a bottom and reversal.
RSI is still above 40 meaning it is still in a positive sentiment with no divergence from the February peak. S&P 500 seems set for a rebound and if the Index closes above 4,030 the uptrend is likely to resume.
A first indication of this scenario to play out could be if RSI closes above its falling trendline.
If S&P 500 closes below Thursday low and RSI closes below 40 S&P 500 has demolished the bottom and reversal picture and would be in a confirmed bear trend.
US 500 cfd bounced from the 100 daily Moving Average and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement to close above 200 daily Moving Average to close back above key support at 3,947.50. RSI still in positive sentiment. If US500 moves back above 4,027 it is likely to resume uptrend.
A close below yesterday’s low at 3,919 the rebound picture is demolished and US 500 is likely to drop lower towards 3,800.
Nasdaq 100 Buyers in control throughout yesterday’s session lifting the Index back above 200 daily Moving Average and key support at 11,906 forming a Bullish Engulfing candle.
RSI is still above 40 meaning it is still in a positive sentiment with no divergence from the February peak. If Nasdaq 100 closes above 12,385 and above the 21 daily Moving Average the uptrend has resumed.
A first indication of this scenario to play out could be if RSI closes above its falling trendline.
A close below 11,830 i.e., yesterday’s low is likely to lead to a sell-off down to around the 0.618 retracement at 11,515 possibly down to support at around 11,259.
USNAS100 Double Top pattern potential is still unfolding. After the break below 12,213 there is down side potential to around the 0.618 retracement at 11,518 as illustrated by the two vertical arrows. However, USNAS100 has found support at the 200 daily Moving Average and after its strong rebound yesterday the bearish picture could be reversed. If USNAS100 closes back above 12,234 and above the 21 daily Moving Average the Double top pattern is demolished and uptrend is likely to resume with potential to February peak level.
Dow Jones Industrial has formed a Morning Doji Star bottom and reversal pattern (circled) bouncing from the support at around 32,573. Despite RSI being negative the Index could experience a nice rebound to around the 55 daily Moving Average but room up to resistance at around 34,342-34,712.
If Dow Jones closes below 32,500 down trend is set to resume
US30 cfd has bounced from support at around 32,472 and seems set for a rebound to the upper range in the side ways range US30 has been trading in since November. A break below 32,470 is likely to push US30 down to 31,715, possibly lower
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo... -
Quarterly Outlook
Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro: Sandcastle economics
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p... -
Quarterly Outlook
Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...
Disclaimer