Quarterly Outlook
Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
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Technical Update - US Stock Indices set for a rebound: S&P500, Nasdaq & Dow Jones
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: Major US Indices forming bottom and reversal patterns indicating a strong rebound.
In this analysis: S&P 500/US500, Nasdaq 100/USNAS100 & Dow Jones Industrial/US30
S&P 500 opened below yesterday the 200 daily Moving Average dipping down to touch the 0.618 retracement at 3,929 to close above key support at 3,949 forming a Bullish Engulfing candle which is a strong indication of a bottom and reversal.
RSI is still above 40 meaning it is still in a positive sentiment with no divergence from the February peak. S&P 500 seems set for a rebound and if the Index closes above 4,030 the uptrend is likely to resume.
A first indication of this scenario to play out could be if RSI closes above its falling trendline.
If S&P 500 closes below Thursday low and RSI closes below 40 S&P 500 has demolished the bottom and reversal picture and would be in a confirmed bear trend.
US 500 cfd bounced from the 100 daily Moving Average and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement to close above 200 daily Moving Average to close back above key support at 3,947.50. RSI still in positive sentiment. If US500 moves back above 4,027 it is likely to resume uptrend.
A close below yesterday’s low at 3,919 the rebound picture is demolished and US 500 is likely to drop lower towards 3,800.
Nasdaq 100 Buyers in control throughout yesterday’s session lifting the Index back above 200 daily Moving Average and key support at 11,906 forming a Bullish Engulfing candle.
RSI is still above 40 meaning it is still in a positive sentiment with no divergence from the February peak. If Nasdaq 100 closes above 12,385 and above the 21 daily Moving Average the uptrend has resumed.
A first indication of this scenario to play out could be if RSI closes above its falling trendline.
A close below 11,830 i.e., yesterday’s low is likely to lead to a sell-off down to around the 0.618 retracement at 11,515 possibly down to support at around 11,259.
USNAS100 Double Top pattern potential is still unfolding. After the break below 12,213 there is down side potential to around the 0.618 retracement at 11,518 as illustrated by the two vertical arrows. However, USNAS100 has found support at the 200 daily Moving Average and after its strong rebound yesterday the bearish picture could be reversed. If USNAS100 closes back above 12,234 and above the 21 daily Moving Average the Double top pattern is demolished and uptrend is likely to resume with potential to February peak level.
Dow Jones Industrial has formed a Morning Doji Star bottom and reversal pattern (circled) bouncing from the support at around 32,573. Despite RSI being negative the Index could experience a nice rebound to around the 55 daily Moving Average but room up to resistance at around 34,342-34,712.
If Dow Jones closes below 32,500 down trend is set to resume
US30 cfd has bounced from support at around 32,472 and seems set for a rebound to the upper range in the side ways range US30 has been trading in since November. A break below 32,470 is likely to push US30 down to 31,715, possibly lower
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