Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - USDJPY uptrend looks stretched and is facing strong resistance. Can it break it?
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
USDJPY in steepest trend in 30+ years is facing strong resistance at 147.65, peak from 1998. Trend is stretched and USDJPY is forming a rising wedge top and reversal pattern
USDJPY Earlier this week buyers manage to break and close above the resistance at 145.
145 was the 1.618 projection of the July correction.
At the time of writing USDJPY is breaking above the peak of the very volatile trading day 22nd September. The energy from that day suggests USDJPY could move to the Fibonacci projection 1.382 at 148 but 1.618 projection at around 149.34 is not unlikely. If that scenario unfolds USDJPY will be testing the upper trendline in what looks like a rising wedge pattern (two black rising lines). Short-term uptrend is a bit stretched indicated by divergence on RSI but the uptrend is intact.
However, as can be seen from the monthly chart there is strong resistance at 147.65.
147.65 is the peak in 1998 and within few cents also the length of the 3rd vawe from 2012 to 2015. The uptrend since 2021 is the steepest and fastest the past 30+ years and it is quite stretched. There is still no divergence on RSI however, but since October is still not over the jury is still out.
A possible scenario could be for USJPY to spike above the 147.65 to 148-149 and then exhaust.
If USDJPY closes below the lower trendline of the rising wedge on the daily chart it is a strong indication of trend reversal. Break out for wedges usually occurs 2/3 of the way to the apex (where the two lines meet) and we are approximately 60% of the way.
If USDJPY closes above the upper trendline this Wedge reversal scenario has been demolished.
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