Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
However, as can be seen from the monthly chart there is strong resistance at 147.65.
147.65 is the peak in 1998 and within few cents also the length of the 3rd vawe from 2012 to 2015. The uptrend since 2021 is the steepest and fastest the past 30+ years and it is quite stretched. There is still no divergence on RSI however, but since October is still not over the jury is still out.
A possible scenario could be for USJPY to spike above the 147.65 to 148-149 and then exhaust.
If USDJPY closes below the lower trendline of the rising wedge on the daily chart it is a strong indication of trend reversal. Break out for wedges usually occurs 2/3 of the way to the apex (where the two lines meet) and we are approximately 60% of the way.
If USDJPY closes above the upper trendline this Wedge reversal scenario has been demolished.