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Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - EURUSD and GBPUSD below key supports, indicators pointing to lower levels. USDJPY range bound
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
- EURUSD closing below key support at 1.08 suggest a potential further downside to 1.0660. Indicators supports lower EURUSD levels
- GBPUSD closed below key support at 1.26, next support at 1.25
- USDJPY caught range bound. Break out needed for direction
EURUSD has over Easter broken below the 0.618 retracement at 1.0804 and closed below the Ichimoku Cloud (shaded area).
And now also below the 0.786 retracement at 1.0756, testing minor support at 1.0723.
However, RSI being below the 40 thresholds is showing negative sentiment, and the 55 daily Moving Average is about to break below the 200 Moving Average, which is called a Death Cross. It means that the medium- and longer-term underlying trends are in decline, indicating EURUSD is likely to trade lower in the coming weeks.
February lows at 1.0695 are very likely to be taken out, and the support at around 1.0660 is likely to be tested.
A daily close below 1.0660 could push EUR/USD lower to around 1.05 in the coming weeks.
To demolish this bearish scenario, a close above 1.0925 is necessary.
GBPUSD, after a couple of tries adn spiking below, GBPUSD closed below key support at around 1.26 and below the 200 daily Moving Average.
GBPUSD is now likely to test the support at around 1.25. A daily close below 1.25 can initiate another sell-off down to the 1.2410-1.2375 support area.
RSI is showing negative sentiment, supporting the bearish picture.
To demolish this bearish scenario, a daily close above 1.2675 is needed
USDJPY is caught range-bound in a tight range between 151.95 and 150.80. A daily close above or below is needed for direction.
A close above 151.95 indicates short-term upside potential to the 1.618 projection at 153.60.
Conversely, a close below 150.80 suggests a correction down to support at around 149.20 is quite likely, potentially down to the 0.618 retracement at 148.58.
RSI is showing positive sentiment, indicating the breakout is likely to be to the upside, but confirmation is needed, i.e., a close above USD/JPY 151.95 is necessary.
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