Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
GBPUSD, after a couple of tries adn spiking below, GBPUSD closed below key support at around 1.26 and below the 200 daily Moving Average.
GBPUSD is now likely to test the support at around 1.25. A daily close below 1.25 can initiate another sell-off down to the 1.2410-1.2375 support area.
RSI is showing negative sentiment, supporting the bearish picture.
To demolish this bearish scenario, a daily close above 1.2675 is needed
USDJPY is caught range-bound in a tight range between 151.95 and 150.80. A daily close above or below is needed for direction.
A close above 151.95 indicates short-term upside potential to the 1.618 projection at 153.60.
Conversely, a close below 150.80 suggests a correction down to support at around 149.20 is quite likely, potentially down to the 0.618 retracement at 148.58.
RSI is showing positive sentiment, indicating the breakout is likely to be to the upside, but confirmation is needed, i.e., a close above USD/JPY 151.95 is necessary.