Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
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Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: EURUSD uptrend cut short. Could re-visit 1.09
GBPUSD 1.28 too strong a resistance to penetrate, correction unfolding
Dollar Index rebounding from just above 100. Eyeing 103?
GBPUSD has now been reject 4 times at the 1.28 resistance. This time the rejection is resulting in the cross to be send back below the lower rising trendline.
A correction down to the 0.382 retracement at 1.2538 is quite likely. Around that level the rising 55 and 200 DMAs will give support. However, a close below 1.25 is likely to confirm a downtrend.
For GBPUSD to resume and extend the uptrend a close above 1.28 is needed.
If that scenario plays out there is room up to around1.30.