Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - EURUSD uptrend cut short. GBPUSD rejected at key resistance. Dollar Index rebounding strongly
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: EURUSD uptrend cut short. Could re-visit 1.09
GBPUSD 1.28 too strong a resistance to penetrate, correction unfolding
Dollar Index rebounding from just above 100. Eyeing 103?
EURUSD reached the 1.382 projection at 1.1130 only to be immediately rejected. Sell-off has hit this morning. A sell-off that is likely to send EURUSD down to the 0.618 retracement at around 1.0882. Just below that level the 55 and the 200 Moving Averages will offer some support.
During the bullish move to the 1.1130, level RSI has been showing divergence warning of a trend exhaustion.
However, to establish a bearish trend a close below 1.0720 is needed. Until then the sell-off could merely just be a correction.
If EURUSD is taking out last week’s peak at around 1.1140 the uptrend is resuming with potential to 1.2575-1.13 level
During the bullish move to the 1.1130, level RSI has been showing divergence warning of a trend exhaustion.
However, to establish a bearish trend a close below 1.0720 is needed. Until then the sell-off could merely just be a correction.
If EURUSD is taking out last week’s peak at around 1.1140 the uptrend is resuming with potential to 1.2575-1.13 level
GBPUSD has now been reject 4 times at the 1.28 resistance. This time the rejection is resulting in the cross to be send back below the lower rising trendline.
A correction down to the 0.382 retracement at 1.2538 is quite likely. Around that level the rising 55 and 200 DMAs will give support. However, a close below 1.25 is likely to confirm a downtrend.
For GBPUSD to resume and extend the uptrend a close above 1.28 is needed.
If that scenario plays out there is room up to around1.30.
The Dollar Index is rebounding after dipping below the 0.786 retracement at 100.90 to find support at 100.32.
Currently trading at the 0.382 retracement at 101.83 the4re is short-term potential to the 0.618 retracement at around 102.76, possibly all the way up to the 0.786 retracement at 103.42 where the declining 55 Daily Moving Average will add to the overhead resistance.
A break below 100.32 is likely to extend the bearish trend to July lows around 99.22
Currently trading at the 0.382 retracement at 101.83 the4re is short-term potential to the 0.618 retracement at around 102.76, possibly all the way up to the 0.786 retracement at 103.42 where the declining 55 Daily Moving Average will add to the overhead resistance.
A break below 100.32 is likely to extend the bearish trend to July lows around 99.22
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