Quarterly Outlook
Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events.
January CPI France (0745) & Germany (1300), US 4Q Employment Cost Index, Dec Personal Spending & Core PCE Price Index (1330).
Mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan still shut for Lunar New Year
For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.
Volatility dropped, with VIX at 15.84 (-4.35%), as markets showed confidence ahead of PCE data. Short-term measures (VIX1D: -8.74%, VIX9D: -8.71%) also fell below the standard VIX, signaling low fear. S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are up 0.30% and 0.64%, suggesting positive momentum. Earnings from Apple contributed to the decline in volatility, as markets shrugged off recession concerns.
Bitcoin fell slightly (-0.21% to $104,506), staying in a tight range between $100K-$105K as traders await PCE inflation data. Trump’s tariff threats against BRICS added pressure, overshadowing optimism on crypto regulation. El Salvador passed a Bitcoin law amendment to secure an IMF relief deal, reducing mandatory Bitcoin acceptance. Altcoins were mixed, with Ethereum (+0.42%) and Solana (-0.31%) trading flat. Crypto sentiment remains cautious, with high volatility expected post-PCE report.
Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios
Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty