Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Macro Dragon: Welcome to WK # 28...
Kay Van-Petersen
Global Macro Strategist
Summary: Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.
(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)
Macro Dragon: Welcome to WK # 28...
Top of Mind…
- Happy Monday Folks & Welcome to WK # 28…
- KVP is recovering from a phenomenal 4th of Jul steak & pasta dinner, which was more importantly shared with excellent company – nothing like good people & experiences… at the end of the day, everything else is noise. And yes, hopefully your loved ones & family are good people. Either way, KVP is enjoying some fasting to kick-off wk #28
- What kind of week are you trying to create? Are you lining up the odds of life for you, or against you?
- So this wk post the long wkd in the US, as well as last wk potent calendar which saw equities up by +4% in the shortened wk, plus a massive NFP number beat 4.8m a vs. 3.2m e is looking fairly quiet from a known unknowns basis.
- Economics: Apart from ISM Non-Mfg. from the US later today, inflation out of China later this wk – its going to be a fairly light wk.
- Central Banks: RBA Tue, which if you recall at the last meeting they were quite constructive about the economy & talked back previous dovishness that were seen in the depths of the Mar sell-off. Still worth remembering that RBA is conducting YCC by keeping the 3yr at 25bp. For now the consensus view is set at no change at 0.25%. We also have a rate decision out of Malaysia, where the mkt is expecting a 25bp cut to 1.75%
- Fed Speak: Not as much as last wk, yet we have Bostic set to speak thrice. As well as Daly & Barkin.
- Holidays: SG is out on Fri 10th Jul, due to election day.
- US: ISM non-mfg 50.0e 45.4p, Services PMI 47.0e 46.7p, JOLTS, Crude Oil Inv., Jobless Claims, PPI, WholeSale Inv.
- CH: CPI 2.5% 2.4%p, PPI -3.2%e -3.7%p, Money Supply, New Loans
- EZ: GER Factory Orders, Sentic Conf., Retail Sales, GER IP, Eurogroup Meetings
- JP: Avg. Cash Erns, Leading Indicators, current Account, Machinery Orders, PPI
- UK: Construction PMI, House Equity Withdrawal, House Prices, CB Leading Index
- AU: RBA, MI inflation Gauge, AIG Serv. Index,
- NZ: ANZ cmd prices, Milk Auction, ANZ Biz Conf.
- CA: BoC Biz Outlook Survey, Ivey PMI 50.2e 39.1p, Housing Starts, Jobs Data
-
Start-End = Gratitude + Integrity + Vision + Tenacity. Process > Outcome. Sizing > Idea.
This is the way
KVP
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