Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
You can access all of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
Macro Dragon: Welcome to WK # 28...
Kay Van-Petersen
Global Macro Strategist
Summary: Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.
(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)
Macro Dragon: Welcome to WK # 28...
Top of Mind…
- Happy Monday Folks & Welcome to WK # 28…
- KVP is recovering from a phenomenal 4th of Jul steak & pasta dinner, which was more importantly shared with excellent company – nothing like good people & experiences… at the end of the day, everything else is noise. And yes, hopefully your loved ones & family are good people. Either way, KVP is enjoying some fasting to kick-off wk #28
- What kind of week are you trying to create? Are you lining up the odds of life for you, or against you?
- So this wk post the long wkd in the US, as well as last wk potent calendar which saw equities up by +4% in the shortened wk, plus a massive NFP number beat 4.8m a vs. 3.2m e is looking fairly quiet from a known unknowns basis.
- Economics: Apart from ISM Non-Mfg. from the US later today, inflation out of China later this wk – its going to be a fairly light wk.
- Central Banks: RBA Tue, which if you recall at the last meeting they were quite constructive about the economy & talked back previous dovishness that were seen in the depths of the Mar sell-off. Still worth remembering that RBA is conducting YCC by keeping the 3yr at 25bp. For now the consensus view is set at no change at 0.25%. We also have a rate decision out of Malaysia, where the mkt is expecting a 25bp cut to 1.75%
- Fed Speak: Not as much as last wk, yet we have Bostic set to speak thrice. As well as Daly & Barkin.
- Holidays: SG is out on Fri 10th Jul, due to election day.
- US: ISM non-mfg 50.0e 45.4p, Services PMI 47.0e 46.7p, JOLTS, Crude Oil Inv., Jobless Claims, PPI, WholeSale Inv.
- CH: CPI 2.5% 2.4%p, PPI -3.2%e -3.7%p, Money Supply, New Loans
- EZ: GER Factory Orders, Sentic Conf., Retail Sales, GER IP, Eurogroup Meetings
- JP: Avg. Cash Erns, Leading Indicators, current Account, Machinery Orders, PPI
- UK: Construction PMI, House Equity Withdrawal, House Prices, CB Leading Index
- AU: RBA, MI inflation Gauge, AIG Serv. Index,
- NZ: ANZ cmd prices, Milk Auction, ANZ Biz Conf.
- CA: BoC Biz Outlook Survey, Ivey PMI 50.2e 39.1p, Housing Starts, Jobs Data
-
Start-End = Gratitude + Integrity + Vision + Tenacity. Process > Outcome. Sizing > Idea.
This is the way
KVP
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...