With Super Tuesday behind us, it seems to be increasingly more clear that we will see a Trump vs. Biden rerun. And while we still haven’t seen the political programmes on which the two candidate will base their campaign, and thus don’t know how they will impact the economy specifically.
Still, there are some indices and ETFs that are relevant to track as we get increasingly closer to Election Day on 5 November. We have listed some of those here and below you find a short explanation of why these are relevant.
Indices:
Thematic ETFs
If you want some inspiration that is slightly more specific than broader, regional indices, here’s a few topics to dive into depending on the political focus of the two candidates and the eventual winner.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
