Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew February 28 2024

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Treading water


Good Morning,

Bad Durable goods orders and a disappointing consumer confidence weigh on sentiment without lowering the yield and raising hopes of rate cuts.

We saw basically a pause in equities with the Dow slightly lower while the S&P and the Nasdaq could rise – all stayed within 0.5% plus or minus. Interestingly the GER40 seems to be celebrating the German recession and is up 2.5% on the week at 17580. Cinese small caps are under severe pressure this morning as the small cap Index falls 6.5%.

The 10 Year yields are little moved at 4.28 and the USD index a little higher. EURUSD is at 1.0825, GBPUSD 1.2655 and USDJPY 150.66 again.

Gold and Silver are lower at 2028 and 22.40, Bitcoin strong at 57k. Kim posted on the technicals of Bitcoin below while Ole on the resilience of Gold to rate expectation changes.

Technical Update - Coinbase and Crypto mining companies lifted by rally in Bitcoin and Ethereum

Resilient gold market defies lower rate cut predictions

 

Today we have the key earnings day of the week with Salesforce and Snowflake, there is a release of the PCE Prices Index Preliminary, this in NOT the core measurement of the Feds inflation - that will released tomorrow.

The US GDP will be closely watched today but I would expect tomorrows PCE and or the Tech earnings today to make or break the week.

Key events:

 

Wednesday
- Data Australia CPI, EU Consumer Confiddence, US GDP
- Earnings: Oversea-Chinese Banking, Holcim, Royal Bank of Canada, TJX Cos, Salesforce, Snowflake, Monster Beverage, Universal Music, Reckitt Benckiser

Thursday
- Data CH FX  Reserves, DE Unemployment Rate, US PCE, Initial Jobless claims 
- Earnings: Alimentation, Anheuser-Busch, CRH, NetEase, Dell Technologies, Autodesk, London Stock Exchange Group

Friday
- Data EU HICP International PMI, NO Nonfarm Payroll

Expiries

Physically Settled Futures

TTFMH4 will expire 27 Feb 2024 at 10:00 GMT

EMAH4 will expire 28 Feb 2024 at 10:00 GMT

TNH4 will expire 28 Feb 2024 at 10:00 GMT

UBH4 will expire 28 Feb 2024 at 10:00 GMT

XCH4 will expire 28 Feb 2024 at 10:00 GMT

XKH4 will expire 28 Feb 2024 at 10:00 GMT

XWH4 will expire 28 Feb 2024 at 10:00 GMT

Z3NH4 will expire 28 Feb 2024 at 10:00 GMT

HGH4 will expire 28 Feb 2024 at 16:00 GMT

SIH4 will expire 28 Feb 2024 at 16:00 GMT

ZBH4 will expire 28 Feb 2024 at 16:00 GMT

ZCH4 will expire 28 Feb 2024 at 16:00 GMT

ZLH4 will expire 28 Feb 2024 at 16:00 GMT

ZMH4 will expire 28 Feb 2024 at 16:00 GMT

ZNH4 will expire 28 Feb 2024 at 16:00 GMT

ZSH4 will expire 28 Feb 2024 at 16:00 GMT

ZWH4 will expire 28 Feb 2024 at 16:00 GMT

SBH4 will expire 29 Feb 2024 at 16:00 GMT

 

Expiring CFDs

OILUKAPR24 will expire 29 Feb 2024 at 16:00 GMT

 

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
The Circle 38
CH-8058
Zürich-Flughafen
Switzerland

Contact Saxo

Select region

Switzerland
Switzerland

All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law. 

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.