Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - 2-years US Treasury yields forming corrective pattern, breakout needed for direction. 10-years bounces from support, likely to resume uptrend
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
US 2-year Treasury yields seems to be forming a symmetrical triangle pattern. Break out is needed for direction. A bullish break out and close above resistance at 3.28% is likely to push yields to new highs above 3.45. If that scenario unfolds there would be short-term potential to 3.73 but quite likely higher.
If breaking bearish out of the triangle 2-years Treasury yields will break medium-term rising (light blue) trendline. A daily close below support at 2.72 is likely to push 2-years yields down to around 2.50-2.35%.
US 10-year Treasury yields bounced in late session yesterday from key support at around 2.55. Back above 2.71 yields could test the upper falling trend line possibly in a few days. First minor obstacle is getting back above its 100 SMA.
If closing above the falling trend line key resistance is at 3.11. RSI closing above falling trendline will support this scenario
For Yields to resume short-term bearish trend yesterday’s low at 2.53 needs to be taken out. Strong support at around 2.31.
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