Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - US 10-year Treasury yields in a limbo - future indicates direction. Euro Bund rejected at key resistance - trend to reverse?
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
After bouncing from 2.55% support yields US 10-year Treasury yields were rejected at the short-term upper falling trendline in what seems like a falling channel. To get upside traction a break above the trendline and above 2.88 is needed. If that plays out resistance at 3.11
2.50 is the level to take out for test of 2.31 support.
On the US 10-year Treasury future itself the picture is clearer. Rejected at 122 Bearish Engulfing candle formed on the 2nd August which signals top and reversal. A close below the lower rising trendline is likely to fuel a sell-off down to key support at 117 18/32.
RSI has broken below its rising trendline and if RSI closes below 40 it is back in negative sentiment. That scenario could play out before the future breaks below key support.
Euro Bund future was rejected at the resistance at 159.79 (peak was a few cents off at 159.70). Still trading in a rising channel i.e. in an uptrend. However, a close below the lower rising trendline and below 154.75 is likely to reverse the trend. Some support at 153.50 and major key support at 149.75.
No divergence on RSI but if RSI closes below 50 it could be an indication of a reversal of the trend, nevertheless. As can be seen 50 has (at least past few months) historically been a pivot for Bull/Bear trends.
To extend the current uptrend a close above 159.79 is needed.
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