Quarterly Outlook
Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Access both platforms from your single Saxo account.
Technical Update - US 10-year Treasury yields back above 4%, will it continue. EuroBund future reversed uptrend
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: US 10-year Treasury future uptrend seems to be reversing sending yields above 4%. If 4.10 is taken out there is room to 4.25
EuroBund future has reversed it uptrend testing key support area
US 10-year Treasury yields are bouncing somewhat from just above strong support at around 3.72
Breaking bullish out of its falling channel pattern yields are currently testing the 200 DMA and resistance at around 4.05.
A daily close above 4.05 could lead to further upside. Minor resistance at 4.10 which is also the 0.618 retracement of the last leg down, and strong resistance at 4.29 just above the 0.382 retracement of the entire downtrend since October at 4.25.
The 55 DMA has crossed over the 100 DMA when they are both declining forming a Death Cross. However, most of the down trend has probably occurred when the Death Cross is being formed.
The two Moving Averages do however, act as fairly strong overhead resistance limiting the uptrend at least on short-term
If rejected at 4.05 and in stead is sliding back below 3.78 downtrend is resuming
The US 10-year Treasury future was rejected at key strong resistance at around 113 8/32 now broken below its lower rising trend closing in on key support at 111 12/32
A close below 111 12/32 could lead to a sell-off down to around 109 10/32 level.
However, RSI is still in positive sentiment with no divergence indicating what we are witnessing could just be a correction. To resume uptrend a close above 113 12/32 is needed
EuroBund future has reversed its bullish trend currently testing upper part of support area at 135.45-134.55. A break below 135.45 and the lower part of the support area at 124.55 is likely to be tested.
If that scenario plays out there could be further downside in store for the Bund future.
If closing below 134.55 further selling pressure down toa round 133.15-132.75 could be seen
For the Bund future to resume uptrend at close above 137.84 is needed Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Upending the global order at blinding speed
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy