Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - US 10-year Treasury yields resuming uptrend? US Treasury and Euro Bund futures testing key supports
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
US 10-year Treasury yields bounced off lows to just below key resistance at around 4.20. A close above and an RSI close above 60 threshold will confirm a Double Bottom pattern. A bottom and reversal pattern with potential resitance at 4.38 possibly 4.51. Minor resistance at 4.29.
A move back below 4% and the bearish trend is resuming with a likely drop to 3.72 -3.67 level. The 10-year future closed yesterday bang on the key support at 110 26/32.
A daily close below is likely leading to a sell-off down to 110, but could sell-off down to around the 100 DMA and 109 8/32 support
If the future is bouncing back above the Cloud (shaded area) it is likely having another attempt at closing above key resistance at around 112 27/32
RSI is likely being the deciding factor here. It is currently still in positive sentiment but if the future is closing below 110 26/32 and RSI is closing below 40 threshold, a bearish trend has been confirmed EuroBund future has corrected approx. 50% of the December through January sell-off around 136.20. Now sellers seem to having another go at the support at around 133.46.
A close below and an RSI close below 40 threshold will confirm bearish trend with downside potential to 131.98-131.74
If the Bund future cannot close below 133.46 and instead is rebounding, a break above 136.29 is likely to push the future to the 0.786 retracement at 137.71
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