Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
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Technical Update - US Treasury yields struggling to extend uptrend. Uptrend in German Government yields strong hitting resistance
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
US 2-year Treasury yield is testing May peak at 4.634. A close above is needed for extending the uptrend to 4.88-5%.
If yields slides back to close below 4.23 the trend has reversed.
US 10-year Treasury yield bounced off lower rising trendline. Uptrend is intact supported by positive RSI sentiment and all Moving Averages rising. However, a close above 3.86 is needed for the uptrend to be extended towards 4%.r .
1.618 Projection of the latest correction is at 4.05, same level as the Q1 high close.
To reverse this bullish scenario a drop back below 3.54 is needed. First indication of that scenario to play out could be a break of lower rising trendline.
US 30-year Treasury yield has been moving in a rising channel pattern. Rejected at the resistance at around 4%. At the time of writing 30-year yields are breaking below its rising trendline i.e., breaking bearish out of its rising channel. Some support at 3.82
If closing below 3.72 the uptrend is likely to have reversed.
However, RSI is still positive indicating higher levels, it needs to close below 40 threshold to reverse that.
A break above 4.01 - which at the moments seems like a long shot to happen - is likely to lead to at move to 4.20.
If closing below 3.72 the uptrend is likely to have reversed.
However, RSI is still positive indicating higher levels, it needs to close below 40 threshold to reverse that.
A break above 4.01 - which at the moments seems like a long shot to happen - is likely to lead to at move to 4.20.
2-year German Government yield is in an uptrend and could reach March peak around 3.38 within a few weeks.
To reverse this uptrend a close below 2.72 is needed. First indication of that scenario to play out would be if yields are breaking below its lower rising trendline
5-year German Government yield has formed an Ascending triangle like pattern it is trying to break bullish out of. A spike up today has been send back down below resistance at around 2.58. If closing above we could see a rally up to previous peak at around 2.90.
To reverse this uptrend a close below 2.32 is needed. First indication of that scenario to play out would be if yields are breaking below its lower rising trendline
10-year German Government yield has – similar to 2-years - formed an Ascending triangle like pattern. An attempt to break above the resistance at around 2.46 has at the time of writing failed.
A close above could fuel a rally to previous peak at around 2.77
To reverse this uptrend a close below 2.24 is needed. First indication of that scenario to play out would be if yields are breaking below its lower rising trendline
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