Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Access both platforms from your single Saxo account.
COT: Gold short hits record, wheat long jumps on drought
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
To download your copy of the Commitment of Traders: Commodities report for the week ending June 12, click here.
After having cut bullish commodities bets to a 13-month low during the previous eight weeks, hedge funds turned net-buyers of commodities in the week to July 24.
Net buying of WTI crude, fuel products, wheat, and live cattle more than off-set continued selling of metals.
Buyers returned to Brent crude as a war of words between President Trump and Iran’s President Rouhani highlighted the continued risk of disruptions. WTI, meanwhile, was sold and including the minor CME Brent and ICE WTI contracts the combined net increase was limited to just 3,000 lots.
Gold continued to be sold with the net-short hitting 27,156 lots, thereby exceeding the previous record from December 2015. The gross-long rose for the first time in six weeks but was more than offset by a continued extension of the gross-short, which also reached a new record of 142,100 lots.
Despite having the worst run of weekly losses since 2000, silver sellers remain reluctant. The net-short rose to 11,343 lots last week but remains well below the record of 40,177 lots from April.
Buyers returned to HG Copper but just like gold, the gross buying was more than off-set by a continued extension of the gross short, which left the net-short higher by 11% to 26,350 lots – a 22-month high.
Grains were mixed with corn and soybeans seeing another week of selling while both wheat contracts were bought. This was particularly true of CBOT wheat which jumped by 20,385 lots to 23,942 lots, a one-year high. This came as the commodity began to respond the outlook for a tightening global balance with drought continuing to reduce the outlook from key production areas in Europe and the former Soviet Union.
In softs the biggest change was the 24% reduction in the cocoa net-long on a combination of long liquidation and new shorts being added.
The price has now retraced by more than 61.8% of the 60% rally seen between January and April. Coffee and sugar saw small buying before renewed BRL weakness added renewed selling pressure.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo... -
Quarterly Outlook
Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro: Sandcastle economics
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p... -
Quarterly Outlook
Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...
Disclaimer
The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)