Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Access both platforms from your single Saxo account.
COT: Gold length reduced but no appetite for short selling
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Summary: Our weekly Commitment of Traders update highlights future positions and changes made by hedge funds and other speculators across commodities and forex during the week to Tuesday, May 23. A week where US stocks, led by tech-heavy Nasdaq, were in buoyant mood while the dollar and bond yields continued higher amid robust economic data raising expectations for another rate hike before July. In the update below we take a closer look at how speculators in forex and commodities futures responded to these developments.
Saxo Bank publishes weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in commodities while in forex we use the broader measure called non-commercial.
What is the Commitments of Traders report?
The COT reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. They break down the open interest in futures markets into different groups of users depending on the asset class.
Commodities: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap dealers, Managed Money and other
Financials: Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Leveraged Funds and other
Forex: A broad breakdown between commercial and non-commercial (speculators)
The reasons why we focus primarily on the behavior of the highlighted groups are:
- They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged
- This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments
- It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming
Global Market Quick Take Europe
Saxo Market Call Daily Podcast
Podcast special: Investing in commodities through futures, stocks and ETFs
This summary highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across commodities and forex during the week to last Tuesday, May 23. A week where US stocks, led by tech-heavy Nasdaq, were in buoyant mood despite a lack of progress in the debt-limit talks. The dollar and bond yields meanwhile continued higher with robust economic data raising expectations for another rate hike before July. In the update below we take a closer look at how speculators in forex and commodities futures responded to these developments.
The Bloomberg Commodity Index, which tracks spot prices of a basket of major commodity futures spread evenly between energy, metals and agriculture, fell to a fresh 16-month low with focus on China’s lackluster recovery and recession worries elsewhere combined with the stronger dollar and rising yields in anticipation the FOMC stepping up their effort to kill inflation, thereby inadvertently raising additional growth concerns. In addition, traders also had to deal with a higher oil price after the Saudi energy minister told speculators to “watch out”.
Commodity sector:
The Bloomberg Commodity Index, which tracks spot prices of a basket of major commodity futures spread evenly between energy, metals and agriculture, fell to a fresh 16-month low with focus on China’s lackluster recovery and recession worries elsewhere combined with the stronger dollar and rising yields in anticipation the FOMC stepping up their effort to kill inflation, thereby inadvertently raising additional growth concerns. In addition, traders also had to deal with a higher oil price after the Saudi energy minister told speculators to “watch out”.
Responding to these developments, hedge funds bought Brent, natural gas and copper while selling WTI and gold. The agriculture sector meanwhile was mixed with renewed selling of grains offsetting demand for softs and livestock.
Crude oil and fuel products: Money managers increased their net-long position in Brent by more than 30,000 contracts, the biggest increase in almost two months. The increase was driven by a combination of fresh longs (16.5k) and a 13.6k contract reduction in the gross short. In WTI the opposite story resulted in a 17k contract reduction in the net long to 143k. Short covering in gasoil meanwhile extended to a third week while the RBOB gasoline net long jumped 25%.
Gold, silver and copper: Hedge funds were net sellers of gold for a second week, but interestingly the reduction was driven by long liquidation with no appetite for short selling despite the recent technical breakdown. Equally in silver the selling appetite was also muted while the copper net short was reduced by 27%, the first reduction following five weeks of constant selling that saw the net drop from a 20k net long to a 22.6k net short
Grains: Selling of grains resumed resulting in the net-short across the six soy and grains contracts reaching a fresh 33-month high at -159k contracts. All contracts, except KCB wheat saw net selling led by soybeans and soybean meal.
Softs: All four contracts tracked in this update continued to be bought as the supply outlook for sugar, coffee and cocoa remains challenged by adverse weather developments, most notably an ongoing heatwave across Asia. The main change this past week, however, was a 163% reduction in the cotton net short to 8k contracts.
Forex
In forex, speculators cut their IMM dollar short by 22% to $11.7 billion with the bulk of the buying seen against EUR and JPY, and partly offset by short covering in AUD and NZD as well as continued buying of MXN.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo... -
Quarterly Outlook
Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro: Sandcastle economics
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p... -
Quarterly Outlook
Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...
Disclaimer
The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)