Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Access both platforms from your single Saxo account.
COT: Speculators rotate from gold to industrial metals
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Summary: Our weekly Commitment of Traders update highlights future positions and changes made by hedge funds and other speculators across commodities and forex during the week to Tuesday, September 13. A week that ended with the US CPI surprise which helped trigger renewed stock market weakness and bond yield strength while the commodity sector in general traded higher led by industrial linked metals and the grains sector.
Saxo Bank publishes weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in commodities, bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial.
This summary highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across commodities and forex during the week to Tuesday, September 13. A week that ended with the US CPI surprise which helped trigger renewed stock market weakness and bond yield strength. The dollar traded softer led by gains in the euro and Swiss Franc while the commodity sector generally traded higher led by the industrial metal and grain sectors.
Commodities
The Bloomberg Commodity index traded up 2.2% during the reporting week to last Tuesday, September 13 with gains seen across all sectors with the exception of softs. The metal sector was particularly strong, especially those with an industrial link such as silver, platinum and copper. The energy sector was mixed while a US government report supported strong gains across the grains sector led by soybeans.
Responding to these predominantly positive price performances, speculators increased bullish bets in 15 out of the 24 major commodity futures tracked in this by 70k lots to a 1.08 million. The bulk of the change being driven by short covering (49k lots) as opposed to fresh longs (21k lots), reflecting a market that remains concerned about the global economic outlook and its impact on demand for key commodities.
Energy
Crude oil’s current rangebound behavior was reflected in the limited changes seen in the overall net long. A week of small gains helped lift the net long in WTI and Brent crude by 13.4k lots to 341.5k lots and within the narrow 328k to 345k range seen during the past four weeks. The three fuel product contracts saw light net selling while the net short in natural gas rose 22% to 60k lots.
Metals
The sector saw an unusual strong amount of switching from gold to metals with an industrial link. The gold position flipped back to a net short of 11.3k lots, just a few hundred lots above a 40-month low, with additional selling likely to have been triggered by the technical break below $1680 that followed a couple of days later. The near 9% rally in silver from a two-year low helped trigger a 70% reduction in the net short to 17.1k while the platinum net short was cut in half to 9.3k lots while speculators turned the least negative on copper in three months after cutting their short by 61% to 4.4k lots.
Agriculture:
The latest supply and demand (WASDE) update on September 12 together with concerns about the Ukraine grain deal helped support another week of buying across the grains sector with the combine long rising 10% to 492k lots. Especially the steep drop in soybeans ending stocks forecast by the US Department of Agriculture helped drive strong gains and net buying across the three soy contracts of beans, oil and meal. Corn was bought for a seventh week while wheat traders, despite a 5.3% rally maintained a net short in CBOT following a small reduction in the net short of less than 5%.
Softs were mixed with the sugar long getting a 75% boost to 30.5k while the cocoa net short jumped to a 2 ½-year high at 36.4k lots, this despite having trading sideways for the past three months, most of the time between $2300 and $2400 per tons. Global growth concerns helped trigger a second week of long liquidation in both coffee and cotton.
Forex
Speculators increased bullish dollar bets for a fourth week with the aggressive adding of fresh shorts in the yen (-22.5k) and sterling (-17.7k) being partly offset by significant and continued short-covering in the euro (+24.5k). Overall the dollar long against nine IMM currency futures and the Dollar index reached a six-week high at $21.3 billion.
During the last two reporting weeks which included the euro’s unsuccessful attempt to break lower through €0.99, the net short has seen a 75% reduction to a near three-month low at 11.8k on a combination of fresh longs and short positions being reduced.
A widening gap between FOMC and Bank of Japan policies helped weaken the Japanese yen by 1%, the result being a 39% increase in the net yen short to 80.7k lots, a 14-week high.
What is the Commitments of Traders report?
The COT reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. They break down the open interest in futures markets into different groups of users depending on the asset class.
Commodities: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap dealers, Managed Money and other
Financials: Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Leveraged Funds and other
Forex: A broad breakdown between commercial and non-commercial (speculators)
The reasons why we focus primarily on the behavior of the highlighted groups are:
- They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged
- This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments
- It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo... -
Quarterly Outlook
Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro: Sandcastle economics
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p... -
Quarterly Outlook
Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...
Disclaimer
The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)