Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Access both platforms from your single Saxo account.
Gold dumps on vaccine news and strong U.S. data
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Summary: In our latest gold update we highlighted the risk to precious metals from an ongoing flow of positive news related to Covid-19 vaccines. Yesterday's slump below support at $1850/oz has continued today thereby raising fresh investor concerns about the metals ability to move higher into a vaccine-led global recovery.
In our latest gold update we highlighted the risk to precious metals from an ongoing flow of positive news related to Covid-19 vaccines. Yesterday it slumped below support at $1850/oz thereby raising fresh investor concerns about the metals ability to move higher into a vaccine-led global recovery.
Earlier in the day the market had been spooked by news that the U.S. is gearing up for a vaccine roll out within weeks, an AstraZeneca vaccine that works better in small doses and can be stored at higher temperatures than those being produced by Pfizer and Moderna. What eventually took it lower was the dollars knee-jerk reaction higher in response to much stronger than expected U.S. PMI data. While the dollar later turned lower, the damage to gold had already been done with the break below support attracting long liquidation and short-selling signals from algos.
Gold trades below key support at $1850/oz with the next level of support being the 200-day moving average just below $1800/oz. A break back above $1850/oz and confirmed by a move above $1900/oz is now needed to end the current consolidation/correction phase.
The weakening sentiment can also be seen through the options market where the cost of a 25% delta Call with a three-month expiry over a similar put has fallen to 1%, the lowest since April 2019. Today sees the expiry of December COMEX gold options and before yesterday’s break below $1850/oz, the open interest on puts and calls from strikes $1850 down to $1800 stood above 35,000 lots (35 million ounces) and the mentioned break is likely to have attracted hedging activity from both camps.
Some additional uncertainty was removed late in the day when Trump without acknowledging defeat – which he never will - finally instructed the General Services Administration to begin the formal transition planning.
Responding to these developments, investors pulled another 345k ounces from Exchange-traded fund investments. Thereby taking the total reduction since November 9, when the first vaccine news hit, to 2 million ounces. The aggregate open interest in COMEX gold futures meanwhile rose, a sign of increased short selling activity.
Is it all over for gold some may now ask. We believe the answer is no but also acknowledge that gold and silver once again do what they do best, i.e. frustrate investors. While the hopefully successful rollout of vaccines next year will support growth and the stock market, we also see tailwinds for investment metals. The dollar is likely to weaken as investors look to emerging markets for better opportunities, not least if bond yields climb thereby strengthening the rotation to value from momentum. Analysts at the big banks predict that the dollar could fall 20% if widely available coronavirus jab leads to an economic rebound in 2021. This according to a recent article in the $FT called “Vaccine arrival expected to trigger dollar slump in 2021”.
With former Fed Chair Janet Yellen likely heading into government as Biden’s pick for Treasury secretary, the doves will fly, both in government and at the Federal Reserve. With this in mind we are likely to see more, not less stimulus over the coming months. Such actions may increase the risk of central banks overcompensating thereby reigniting the reflation trade. On that basis we do not see a major risk of rising real yields with a potential pick-up in nominal yields being driven by rising inflation expectations (breakeven).
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo... -
Quarterly Outlook
Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro: Sandcastle economics
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p... -
Quarterly Outlook
Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...
Disclaimer
The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)