Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update- Precious Metals
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: Volatile precious metals being rejected at key resistance levels. Only Palladium broke resistance now testing longer term falling trend
Gold XAUUSD got rejected at the 0.764 Fibonacci retracement a round $1,850 and dropped back down to test the lower rising trend line. If it closes below and breaks below $1,782 there is room for the precious metal to drop to support around $1,725.
The 55 SMA is close to break below the 200 SMA (Simple Moving Average) meaning the underlying trend seems to shifting.
RSI still above 40 threshold i.e. not in negative sentiment just yet, but its close. .
Similar to Gold Silver XAGUSD also got rejected at the 0.764 Fibo retracement of the December sell off, the falling trend line going back almost a year AND the 200 SMA. The precious metal now being back below the 55 SMA seems to be trading in a wide falling channel that is likely to take it down to test the support at around $21.42.
The RSI has broken below its rising trend still but keeping above 40 threshold. A break below is not likely which would confirm the down wards pressure on the price.
Platinum XPTUSD seems to mirror the pattern from Gold. Rejected at Fibo 0.764 retracement and the 200 SMA. A sell off is not unlikely down to the lower rising trend line and the 55 SMA.
A move above $1,066 would reverse the trend followed by a re-test of $1,100 level.
Palladium broke above the strong support at around $2.200 and is currently trading around the 200 SMA. At the time of writing Palladium seems to be rejected forming a potential Bearish Engulfing candle i.e. a top and reversal candle. If that scenario plays out Palladium is likely to be sold off down to test the now support at around $2,205. Above $2,390 Palladium would likely be looking at $2,600-2,750.
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