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Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - Soft Commodities. Soybeans, Corn, Wheat and Coffee
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: Grains are on the rise testing resistance levels. Minor set backs should be expected before next likely move higher. Coffee range bound in a tighter and tighter range. Break out could be imminent
Soybeans
Rounded bottom formation in Soybeans indicates higher levels. After a corrective start to the year Soybeans is resuming its uptrend with the 200 SMA as a support. Some resistance here at the 0,5 retracement level at around $1,426 so do expect some volatility next few day’s as Bears might try to push the price back below the 200 SMA.
However, a break above $1,430 we are likely to see Soybeans moving pretty fast to the 0,764 retracement level at around $1,550. Resistance at around $1,480.
If the price drops below $1,334 the uptrend could be neutralized.
Wheat
Wheat has broken bullish out of its falling wedge like corrective pattern only to be rejected at the 0.764 retracement level at around $833. A pullback should be expect before Wheat is likely to pick up the bullish move towards November peak at around $863.25. The pullback could take Wheat prices down to test the upper falling trend line but 55 SMA does offer some support. RSI is back above 60 threshold confirming the uptrend.
A pullback below $776 will reverse the uptrend.
Corn
Yesterday’s strong move in Corn didn’t last. However, the uptrend is still intact as long as Corn stays above the rising trend line and above $585. Minor resistance at the 0.618 retracement level at around $645 and strong resistance at around $679.
Below $585 will reverse the uptrend
Coffee seems to be forming a Symmetrical Triangle like corrective pattern. Break out could be imminent. If breaking out above $245 new higher should be expected above December peak at $252.35. Bearish break below the lower rising trend line support at $220 is likely to be tested. If taken out next support is around $200
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